Is there enough copper on Earth for China's so called "Energy Transition?"

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. False Dichotomy

Last edited Wed May 27, 2026, 10:52 PM - Edit history (1)

The world has moved past the nuclear fission/fossil fuel impasse. It’s not either/or.

Is it too late? I fear so, however, if there is any chance to save the world at this late date, it will not come by doing nothing while we wait for 1,000’s of nuclear fission plants to come on-line. That’s little better than doing nothing.

Most sane people would agree that fossil fuels are bad. Those of us who were paying attention to science knew this in the 60’s.

Nuclear Fission, after decades of government support, was driven offtrack. Renewables after years of government support were driven offtrack. Fossil Fuels continue to get government subsidies (as do nuclear fission and renewables.)

Nuclear Fusion after decades of government backed research, looks to be becoming a commercial reality, and will likely be here before we have fast reactors burning up all of our recycled nuclear waste. It offers all of the advantages of nuclear fission, plus more advantages over nuclear fission.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/20/nuclear-fusion-without-massive-land-use-huge-fuel-costs.html

Like it or not renewables are a reality.

IEA (2025), Renewables 2025, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025, Licence: CC BY 4.0

Executive summary

Renewables’ global growth, driven by solar PV, remains strong amid rising headwinds

Global renewable power capacity is expected to double between now and 2030, increasing by 4 600 gigawatts (GW). This is roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union and Japan’s power generation capacity combined to the global energy mix. Solar PV accounts for almost 80% of the global increase, followed by wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal. In more than 80% of countries worldwide, renewable power capacity is set to grow faster between 2025 and 2030 than it did over the previous five-year period. However, challenges including grid integration, supply chain vulnerabilities and financing are also increasing.

The increase in solar PV capacity is set to more than double over the next five years, dominating the global growth of renewables. Low costs, faster permitting and broad social acceptance continue to drive the accelerating adoption of solar PV. Wind power faces supply chain issues, rising costs and permitting delays – but global capacity is still expected to nearly double to over 2 000 GW by 2030 as major economies like China and the European Union address these challenges. Hydropower is set to account for 3% of new renewable power additions to 2030. The faster growth of pumped storage plants between 2025-30 leads to a much greater increase in hydropower compared with the previous five years. In 2030, annual geothermal capacity additions are expected to reach a historic high, triple the 2024 increase, driven by growth in the United States, Indonesia, Japan, Türkiye, Kenya and the Philippines.

The forecast for growth in global renewable power capacity is revised down slightly, mainly due to policy changes in the United States and China. The renewable energy growth forecast for the 2025-2030 period is 5% lower compared with last year’s report, reflecting policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024. The forecast for the United States is revised down by almost 50%. This reflects several policy changes, including the earlier phase out of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, the suspension of new offshore wind leasing and restricting the permitting of onshore wind and solar PV projects on federal land. China’s shift from fixed tariffs to auctions is impacting project economics and lowering growth expectations. Nonetheless, China continues to account for nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach its recently announced 2035 wind and solar target five years ahead of schedule, extending its track record of early delivery.

The outlook for renewables is more positive in India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies compared with last year’s forecast. India’s renewable expansion is driven by higher auction volumes, new support for rooftop solar projects, and faster hydropower permitting. The country is on track to meet its 2030 target and become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to rise by 2.5 times in five years. In the European Union, the growth forecast has been revised upwards slightly as a result of higherthan expected utility-scale solar PV capacity installations, driven by strong corporate power purchase agreement (PPA) activity in Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland. This offsets a weaker outlook for offshore wind. The Middle East and North Africa forecast has been revised up by 25%, the biggest regional upgrade, due to rapid solar PV growth in Saudi Arabia. In Southeast Asia, solar PV and wind deployment is accelerating, with more ambitious targets and new auctions.

Global renewable power capacity is expected to reach 2.6 times its 2022 level by 2030 but fall short of the COP28 tripling pledge. In the United Arab Emirates in November 2023, nearly 200 countries agreed on the goal of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. This target can still be brought within reach if countries adopt enhanced policies to bridge gaps in both ambition and implementation. The accelerated case in this report sees global renewable capacity reaching 2.8 times its 2022 level by 2030 if countries minimise policy uncertainties, reduce permitting timelines, increase investment in grid infrastructure, expand flexibility to facilitate integration of variable renewables, and de-risk financing.

…

To make nuclear power (fission or fusion) or renewable energy a viable substitute for all fossil fuel use will require some sort of alternative fuels, hydrogen (green or “white”) is a popular choice. Once we have molecular hydrogen, we can make heavier fuels, like ammonia, or methane, or… We also need batteries, of various types. I think sodium batteries are a better choice than lithium batteries for large battery farms, “flow batteries” are another choice.

You need to wrap your head around one simple concept though.

Nuclear fission is not a panacea; never was, never would have been, and it sure as hell will not save us on its own.