General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: I'm sure evryone here KNOWS this. [View all]Fiendish Thingy
(24,893 posts)Here is why any attempt to strategically deploy ICE in every precinct in every tossup state will fail:
1. They simply dont have enough agents. The swing states are generally considered to be MI, PA, WI, MN, GA, NC, NV, ME and AZ. This year, for the senate, AK, TX, OH, IA, and NE must be also considered toss up states (IIRC, IA, AK, and OH are officially rated as toss up by Cook).
Thats 13 states, with tens of thousands of precincts. Even if ICE assigned just ONE agent per precinct, they wouldnt have enough.
And they wont be able to select strategic blue precincts to target with their limited number of ICE agents
why?
Because:
2. Over the past 18 months, in actual election results in places like FL, GA, and TX, in districts that Trump won by +20 points in 2024 , Democrats have been over performing by 15-30 points, winning the vast majority of these races, and coming too close for Republican comfort in the rest.
In a few of these races, it was mathematically impossible for the democrat to win without getting a significant amount of votes from republicans
Under those conditions in DEEP RED DISTRICTS, it will be impossible to strategically target precincts to disrupt without risking compromising races Republicans have a chance of winning.
3. The widespread suffering caused by this administration has crossed all racial, regional and partisan boundaries, and will continue to worsen and unite the majority of the people against republicans from now until November.
Republicans KNOW this.
When our amygdalas get tickled, and fear bubbles up in the deep dark recesses of our minds, it is critical to stop and Do. The. Math. in order to answer the question of How would they do this thing I am afraid they will do?
If we let fear overtake our critical thinking, we become irrational and incapable of acting effectively.
The republicans KNOW they are going to lose the house, and the odds of losing the senate are increasing daily. They are acting like they know this, with a record number of retirements by those who dont want to serve in a minority congress. The Trump WH has been holding meetings to strategize how to defend against a Dem majority house.
This is why I say, confidently, repeatedly (but not cockily) that NOTHING can stop the Blue Tsunami in November.