Hiring down and inflation up is stagflation isn't it?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. I think US is in mild stagflation but may be slipping a little bit into mild recession w mild deflation to follow

In the tug of war between inflation and job weakness during stagflation, job weakness seems to be a bit more concerning at the moment.

PPI deflated slightly on Wednesday, and CPI inflation rose slightly on Thursday. Perhaps Producer Price Index leads CPI?

It seems that the market has priced in a 0.25 cut to rates and may have mostly priced in 0.50 whether it comes in September or spread over two cuts in Sept and a month or two later.

This could be a case of "the dog caught the car" and (c)karma and dogma interacted. Or we could say it might be a case of "careful what you wish for". If the Fed cuts rates because of a troubled economy, what does that presage for the economy?

As things work through a bit, hard to say since it depends on a lot of factors. But for my taste, this is a very risky environment to invest in stocks so I'm out and in bonds.