Hiring down and inflation up is stagflation isn't it?

[uponit7771]

CPI is up even more ... and jobs numbers are continually being revised down

Hiring down and inflation up is stagflation isn't it?

At what point does the M$M declare we're in the stagflation economy?

Seems most financial talking heads are doing everything they can **NOT** to say that word.

Your take?

tia

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. I think US is in mild stagflation but may be slipping a little bit into mild recession w mild deflation to follow

In the tug of war between inflation and job weakness during stagflation, job weakness seems to be a bit more concerning at the moment.

PPI deflated slightly on Wednesday, and CPI inflation rose slightly on Thursday. Perhaps Producer Price Index leads CPI?

It seems that the market has priced in a 0.25 cut to rates and may have mostly priced in 0.50 whether it comes in September or spread over two cuts in Sept and a month or two later.

This could be a case of "the dog caught the car" and (c)karma and dogma interacted. Or we could say it might be a case of "careful what you wish for". If the Fed cuts rates because of a troubled economy, what does that presage for the economy?

As things work through a bit, hard to say since it depends on a lot of factors. But for my taste, this is a very risky environment to invest in stocks so I'm out and in bonds.

[uponit7771]

2. Same sitting on the side getting 4% seems safer than DCA after bottom falls out

[haele]

3. Stagflation is when jobs disappear and no one buys while prices keep going down

It's a more vicious cycle than an inflationary cycle.
Stagflation develops when prices are lowered to combat inflation and juice sales without subsidizing a soft landing for the businesses forced to lower prices to sell their products. Businesses sell at a loss, cut jobs (labor generally being the highest cost investment a business has) to keep afloat, then can't find enough buyers for the product they've already cut costs to the bone for.
The "consumer" eventually stops consuming, because why buy a new PS5 at a reduced $500 when next month it might be dropped down to $300 just to get it off the shelf it's been sitting on for 6 months now. And if the consumer waits long enough, it might end up on Woot or another excess stock seller for $150.

Oh, the Media/Entertainment owners and the Investor class will loudly blame unions, socialists, the failing "liberal" middle class and "undeserving" lazy poor instead of bottom line corporate greed and the lack of investment to stabilize labor as the economy spirals downward and businesses start to fail, and politicians will listen to those who only work with other people's money because "they're fiscally smart".