It assumes (dramatically oversimplifying things) that everyone who showed up for McAuliffe was someone who voted for Biden (and the same for Trump/Youngkin) and the race was all about which group was more energized. That's always a factor, but Tuesday's election saw record turnout for a VA governor's race and the proportion who identified as Democrats was the same as last year. McAuliffe received almost 200k more votes than Northam did last cycle.
From Politico today:
Biden Voters Actually Gave Youngkin the Win
William Saletan: “It’s true that Trump has a lot of supporters, and many turned out for Youngkin. In the network exit poll, 42% of people who cast ballots in the Virginia gubernatorial race said they had a favorable view of the former president, and they voted almost unanimously for Youngkin.”
“But these people were outnumbered by the 54% of respondents who expressed an unfavorable view of Trump. If that majority had voted for McAuliffe with anywhere near the same degree of unanimity, Youngkin would have lost. Instead, the Republican won by peeling away one of every six anti-Trump voters.”
“
On average, in these polls, Youngkin got more than 7% of Biden voters, while McAuliffe got only 2% of Trump voters. Biden voters, not Trump voters, were decisive.”
https://politicalwire.com/2021/11/04/it-wasnt-trump-supporters-that-helped-youngkin-win/
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