Trump's Self-Indulgence Deepens G.O.P. Fears in Midterms

[lees1975]

3. The GOP losses in the mid-terms are going to be much worse than anyone thinks.

The Republicans, with all of the fuss and flurry of media attention that it got, may have actually gerrymandered a total of 14 seats in about six or seven states. But the problem is that they are measuring the Republican vote in most of those states by 2024 vote totals and turnout. So far, primary wise, the turnout for Republicans has been well below 2024, and even below the 2022 primaries for the midterms, when there wasn't even a pink trickle.

Democrats, on the other hand, are setting records. Pollsters controlled by conservative media are having trouble figuring out what the turnout is going to look like, and that's a big factor. It seems that in several of those gerrymandered districts, the polls aren't actually showing the GOP candidate in the lead. In fact, it looks like they could lose all five of those newly gerrymandered districts in Texas, and lose the one they created in Florida.

And I won't be surprised on Election day when Lindsey Graham is ousted.