U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower

[progree]

88. Biggest Job Revisions Since 2020 Expose Pitfall of Economic Data

Bloomberg, 8/1/25
(no paywall, no quota, no "gimme-your-email-first", none of that, at this MSN-hosted article)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/biggest-job-revisions-since-2020-expose-pitfall-of-economic-data/ar-AA1JK1B1

. . . Much of the downshift was seen in state and local government education — which substantially boosted June employment only to be largely revised away a month later. In emailed comments to Bloomberg, BLS said those sectors made up about 40% of the revision, and “was largely the result of routine incorporation of additional/corrected sample that came in after the initial release.”

That hints at what’s been a more concerning, underlying trend in not just labor-market data, but statistics overall: declining response rates.

BLS surveys firms in the payrolls survey over the course of three months, gaining a more complete picture as more businesses respond. But a smaller share of firms are responding to the first poll. Initial collection rates have repeatedly slid below 60% in recent months — down from the roughly 70% or more that was the norm before the pandemic.

*GRAPH of response rates to payroll data - 1st, 2nd, and 3rd surveys*

“The more data you’re missing and comes in later, the higher the odds the revisions will be much larger,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC. “Fifty percent is just not enough.”

BLS said its analysts have “found no discernible relationship between collection rates and subsequent revisions” to the payrolls data.

Earlier this week, BLS said that about 15% of its sample in the consumer price index — a marquee report on inflation — was suspended from collection on average. That was on top of an announcement in June that the agency suspended collection in three metro areas, which it said happens when its current resources can’t support gathering data.

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/donald-trump-shoots-the-messenger/ar-AA1JKFw4

cutting interest rates is what the Fed does when the economy is weak. When the economy is growing fast, it keeps rates high to avoid overheating. Trump is thus simultaneously claiming that the economy is stronger than people think and that Powell should act as if it’s weaker than people think.

He also blames Powell for failing to change policy quickly enough, when, according to Trump himself, the most important data Powell would use to make this decision are unreliable.