U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower

[Wiz Imp]

64. You can't really tell that by the chart since it doesn't track monthly revisions.

Prior to this year, in the past 2 years there were only 2 monthly revisions of over 100,000 and they came in back-to-back months and in opposite directions. With the release of January 2024 data, the change for December was revised up by 117,000. With the release of February 2024 data, the change for January was revised down by 124,000. For this year, starting in March, all monthly revisions have been downward and generally increasing in size each month with the exception of June's release where the prior 2 months were revised up by just 11,000 & 5,000 respectively. If we see big revisions to June & July data next month, it could be a strong sign that we're heading for a recession soon. Note jobs are a lagging indicator

Note, recessions are usually (but not always) defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. 1st quarter GDP was negative, but the advance release of 2nd quarter was released this week and showed decent growth (+3.0%) but with troubling underlying signs. That number will be revised twice more. If it is revised downward, which seems likely, it will not be good news for the economy. All eyes will be on the nest revision released at the end of 'August.