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In reply to the discussion: U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower [View all]mathematic
(1,586 posts)39. No, not really. 2021 had nearly all positive revisions. 22, 23, 24 had more negative revisions than positive
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm
If you look at the tables, the annual mean revisions under Biden are all negative back to 22, with the exception of the 1st revisions in '22.
I did the count, and of those 3 years the revisions were 14, 16, and 12 negative out of 24 total revisions (2 revisions per month).
So either you're remembering "first impressions" with 2021 being nearly all positive revisions. Or (more likely) you're getting most of your news of this kind from partisan sources like DU which will highlight positive news and bury negative news.
You can see from the top of that page that the mean revision since 2003 is 9. Just 9! A lot of made of these revisions and their supposed bias but if there really was political bias the mean revision wouldn't be so close to 0.
If you look at the tables, the annual mean revisions under Biden are all negative back to 22, with the exception of the 1st revisions in '22.
I did the count, and of those 3 years the revisions were 14, 16, and 12 negative out of 24 total revisions (2 revisions per month).
So either you're remembering "first impressions" with 2021 being nearly all positive revisions. Or (more likely) you're getting most of your news of this kind from partisan sources like DU which will highlight positive news and bury negative news.
You can see from the top of that page that the mean revision since 2003 is 9. Just 9! A lot of made of these revisions and their supposed bias but if there really was political bias the mean revision wouldn't be so close to 0.
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U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower [View all]
BumRushDaShow
Friday
OP
The updated article noted the reported "147,000" job increase last month was revised down and was actually "19,000"
BumRushDaShow
Friday
#3
tRump and WH do not "put out" the BLS numbers. Revisions have been frequent for decades. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Friday
#44
You do know that tRUMP is going to drive out the neutral bean counters at the BLS?
wolfie001
Friday
#78
He's going to try (viz. firing chief of BLS today, after I wrote). We haven't seen the business world react yet. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Friday
#79
Thank you for your kind words. Mass action is in our hands. I too am hoping for a Blue Storm Surge 2026. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Friday
#81
No, we don't need so-and-so numbers to keep up with population growth because we don't know population growth.
mathematic
Friday
#14
It is true that nearly 1 in 5 workers in the US labor force is foreign born. The irony with the immigration wedge
PatrickforB
Friday
#28
The US does need population growth for a while to deal with and care for the retiring boomer cohort
Bernardo de La Paz
Friday
#45
No "just" about it. BLS is professional and no toadies parachuted in. You have NO evidence. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Friday
#46
I was thinking about this this morning. Cuts in Medicare, ACA, and food programs
underpants
Friday
#29
The massive cuts to Medicaid now will drastically degrade the level of care for Medicare as a secondary effect.
Hugin
Friday
#36
Those cuts only kick in after the 2026 midterms, by craven design of the magabots in Congress who think they are smart.n
Bernardo de La Paz
Friday
#47
I wonder where are all the college and high school jobs that always occurred during the summer?
LiberalArkie
Friday
#56
Correct. There's over 150,000 Federal workers who took the deferred resignation option.
Wiz Imp
Friday
#8
This right here is bad bad as I understand it. The worst type of economic downturn
Cheezoholic
Friday
#23
Stagflation comes from supply shocks. Tariff taxes are a supply shock. Labour deportations are a supply shock.
Bernardo de La Paz
Friday
#25
"above the June total of 14,000" - they neglect to say that that was revised down from 147,000
Prairie Gates
Friday
#10
Powell said on wednesday that lowered immigration was resulting in lower workforce size (growth)
mathematic
Friday
#11
No, not really. 2021 had nearly all positive revisions. 22, 23, 24 had more negative revisions than positive
mathematic
Friday
#39
Monthly revisions are almost always fairly modest. When the revisions become significant, it usually
Wiz Imp
Friday
#43
You can't really tell that by the chart since it doesn't track monthly revisions.
Wiz Imp
Friday
#64
Wisdom of the Ancients: If circles and arrows have to be drawn on a chart for you to find...
Hugin
Friday
#21
Trump's tariffs, anti-immigration agenda and disrespect to other nations will break the American economy.
Doodley
Friday
#31
Ughh, look at the headlines at finance.yahoo.com. And S&P 500 down 1.6% 1136 AM ET
progree
Friday
#50
Maddow Blog-U.S. job growth turns cold as Trump's agenda takes its toll on the economy
LetMyPeopleVote
Friday
#51
ADP is only counting "private sector" jobs (using their payroll subscribers as the survey source)
BumRushDaShow
Friday
#61
President Trump says he will fire BLS commissioner after July jobs report disappoints
progree
Friday
#63
Yeah, I figured. As soon as I saw my yellow "My Posts" light lit up, I immediately thought, ruh roh,
progree
Friday
#68
Not only do they do these "First Friday" job numbers, they do CPI and PPI (wholesale) inflation, Productivity,
progree
Friday
#71
"Kugler resignated posted about 15 minutes before your post" - yeah I figured that, but thought
progree
Friday
#74
Thanks :) Yes, I run into that all the time, and do the same thing usually -- stick in a space
progree
Friday
#85
I wish they'd give us a choice about using AI, but no, every time I do a Google search
progree
Saturday
#89
Yes, it would be nice not to have AI fill up half the first page. Mostly what I'm trying to do is prevent the AI search
progree
Saturday
#96