US Fed expected to pause rate cuts again, await clarity on tariffs

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. I think they'll be dropping them in the fall. But there might be a hike in between

If inflation bumps up in the short run, they may hike. But I think that will be short-lived as trade contraction ripples out and interacts with spending contraction and labour market disruption. My best guess is that the second quarter will be down again and inflation will be up not much and the economic contraction will loom larger as a bigger threat.

I am not an economist.