Trump lost both the 2016 and the 2024 elections.

[flashman13]

73. I stand by my analysis. The chances of all seven going Trump in 2024 by just enough to avoid recounts is very near zero,

but not impossible.

I'm not sure I see the similarities between, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In the interest of looking for similarities, I examined Presidential elections since 2000. I found that in all seven races Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all three voted for the same candidate in each race. In 2000 they voted for Gore, in 2004 they voted for Kerry, in 2008 and 2012 they voted for Obama, in 2016 Trump, in 2020 Biden, in 2024 again for Trump. Three times they voted for a winning Democrat and twice they they voted for a losing Democrat. I'm not sure why three states that voted reliably for Democrats five times voted for Trump twice. In 2016 Trump won by 0.2% in MI, 0.7% in PA, and 0.7% in WI. In 2024 Trump won by 1.42% in MI, 1.71% in PA, and 0.86% in WI. The only common denominator seems to be that they were willing to vote for a totally unqualified conman over two highly qualified women. Apparently all three states also favored a white woman over a black woman by significant margins.To me that is a scathing indictment of the American voter.

By contrast, in 2008 Obama won by 16.4% in MI, 10.3% in PA and 13.9% in WI. In 2012 Obama won by 9.5% in MI, 5.4% in PA, and 6.9% in WI. In all cases the margins were far larger than 2016 and 2024. It is interesting that Obama's margins in 2008 were far larger than in 2012. Could that have been a result of McCain's running mate being not only a woman, but in Palen's particular case, a dummy as well?

So the facts show that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan reliably vote Democratic, as long as the candidate is not a woman. They are not necessarily good predictors of the final winner.