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mr715

(4,737 posts)

62. I am not making the extraordinary claim.

Reply to questionseverything (Reply #61)

Wed Jun 10, 2026, 11:44 AM

Wednesday

So I am not burdened with providing extraordinary evidence.

I am saying that rather than asserting 88 swing counties moved in one direction, the correct statistical way of looking at it would be "Given that Trump won X, how likely is it that he would've won Y".

The answer is, btw, if you win 1 swing state you are likely to win all of them.

The probability of Trump winning Michigan was, I don't know, 45%?

The probability of Trump winning EVERY swing state IF he were to win Michigan would probably be 80-90%

Same logic applies to the Senate, though less rigorously and strictly because they are more independent. But if Collins wins Maine, we won't be winning the Senate. It isn't a question of GOP "sweeping" the Senate races. Its that in an environment where we lose our bluest state, we're going to end up losing them all.

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Trump lost both the 2016 and the 2024 elections. [View all] OGBuzz Tuesday OP

Your gut is correct Botany Tuesday #1

He could see the numbers early and adjust them as necessary questionseverything Tuesday #27

Musk had already down loaded programs that made the outcome ..... Botany Wednesday #60

There was an interview back then with Tucker Carlson where Musk and his son were giggling MadameButterfly Tuesday #35

Just as kacekwl Tuesday #2

and Moses Mike Johnson yesterday. OGBuzz Tuesday #5

The O/P is satire on Johnson's remarks, right? Well done. Nt AloeVera Tuesday #36

Correct, and thanks for catching it, there's a couple in the comments here that didn't get it. OGBuzz Tuesday #42

Here's a diabolical redux: IcyPeas Tuesday #50

Thanks for posting the video, that's the b.s. from Johnson that I was responding to. OGBuzz Tuesday #53

It's sickening and dangerous... IcyPeas Tuesday #58

The man has zero integrity and he's the House Speaker. Things will not go well in November. OGBuzz Tuesday #59

I found myself watcbing his face closely whille he was talking. ShazzieB Thursday #86

Trump won both elections fair & square. Jacson6 Tuesday #3

You got "proof"? OGBuzz Tuesday #6

We have the audits states do EdmondDantes_ Tuesday #9

States audited 2020 and Trump still denies that Biden won. As does pretty much every other MAGAt. OGBuzz Tuesday #11

It holds as much evidentiary weight as trump's claim that he won 2020 except for the work of those "cheating Dems" Dave says Tuesday #13

It is incredible Edmond that we can disagree in one thread and completely agree mr715 Tuesday #22

I think the OP was spoofing on Trump thinking his own gut feeling MadameButterfly Tuesday #37

Well and we can't prove it if we don't get to look 👀 questionseverything Tuesday #43

True. The laws need to change so we can safely and effectively investigate MadameButterfly Thursday #87

Insider aka Tina Peters warning from James Baker. Blue Full Moon Wednesday #66

I believe you are missing the point from the OP FHRRK1 Tuesday #12

👍 It looks like my attempt at sarcasm completely failed with some.😂 I need to find one of those 'sarcasm' emojis OGBuzz Tuesday #24

Damn it FHRRK1 Tuesday #28

I figured you meant to say "put every Republican win into doubt". Am I right? OGBuzz Tuesday #30

Exactly, dumbass FHRRK1 Tuesday #55

In my defense sarcasm is often hard to read online EdmondDantes_ Wednesday #63

It'd be nice if the software was open for review. Kid Berwyn Tuesday #4

I will remain malaise Tuesday #8

When we're dealing with grifters and cheaters, PatSeg Tuesday #14

THIS malaise Tuesday #15

We can always hope PatSeg Tuesday #16

I feel like our system is broken at this point Melon Tuesday #19

Digital vote counting can not be transparent because no human being can see inside the computer questionseverything Tuesday #31

Voting in the US should be MANDATORY like it is in Australia. Tim S Tuesday #7

If so many voters are anti-Republican sarisataka Tuesday #10

What do you do with those who can't or won't pay the fine? MichMan Tuesday #17

No. mr715 Tuesday #23

Opting out isn't a viable option.. The right to descent and choose a 3rd party is the way to express your opinion Tim S Tuesday #25

So, do you fine non-voters? mr715 Tuesday #26

I don't know how Australia does it (you're welcome to look it up) but... Tim S Tuesday #32

How about make voting easy, incentivize it, and ritualize it mr715 Tuesday #34

States are free to choose their Electors for the Electoral College as they be fit, but... Tim S Tuesday #39

Well, it'll take a Constitutional convention mr715 Tuesday #40

Agreed... Tim S Tuesday #45

I don't know, honestly. mr715 Tuesday #48

Australia holds elections on Saturday which allows many more people to go to the polls. OGBuzz Tuesday #46

Interesting. You proposing a voting tax.... Melon Tuesday #57

Maybe folks can get with the Spencer Pratt people Sympthsical Tuesday #18

As a corollary question... kentuck Tuesday #20

There is proof. see below. in2herbs Tuesday #21

Thanks for posting. yellow dahlia Tuesday #29

I took a couple of statistics courses eons ago so I know a little about the subect. flashman13 Tuesday #33

Ding ding malaise Tuesday #38

Exactly, it's all about being afraid to look wrong questionseverything Tuesday #44

Misunderstanding predictive statistics. mr715 Tuesday #49

Now do the math for 88 swing counties please questionseverything Wednesday #61

I am not making the extraordinary claim. mr715 Wednesday #62

As Obama said, " we have to beat them so bad there can be no doubt " questionseverything Wednesday #64

We do. mr715 Wednesday #65

I don't think even Obama won all of those 88 swing counties but questionseverything Wednesday #67

Agreed. nt mr715 Wednesday #68

Mathematician here Metaphorical Wednesday #79

Link provided. mr715 Wednesday #80

I stand by my analysis. The chances of all seven going Trump in 2024 by just enough to avoid recounts is very near zero, flashman13 Wednesday #73

There is your statistical question... mr715 Wednesday #74

Can a woman be elected President? I want to believe it can happen. It would be a great step forward for the country. flashman13 Wednesday #84

Statistically "damned near zero", is not the same as impossible MichMan Tuesday #54

Everything Trump accuses others of Dave Id Tuesday #41

He is the Projector-in-Chief. OGBuzz Tuesday #47

I don't see much point in speculating about those elections. ShazzieB Tuesday #51

My original post was intended to be sarcasm in response to Mike Johnson's comments yesterday casting doubt OGBuzz Tuesday #52

Oh, sorry about that. ShazzieB Wednesday #69

No worries.😃 IcyPeas posted the Johnson video if you're interested. Comment #50 in the thread. It's shocking. OGBuzz Wednesday #70

Thanks for pointing me to the video. ShazzieB Thursday #85

Crazy how he couldn't steal 2020 then... Polybius Tuesday #56

He tried, but that pesky Blue Tsunami. Who loses by 7 million votes??? OGBuzz Wednesday #71

Reagan twice won by 7+ million votes, including these guys: Polybius Wednesday #72

Okay, you got me. But in the 21st Century, only Barack and Ole' Joe. OGBuzz Wednesday #75

And hopefully Gavin in 2028 Polybius Wednesday #76

I'm with you on Gavin.👍 OGBuzz Wednesday #78

Whether he did or not, and I think not, it doesn't really matter. BlueTsunami2018 Wednesday #77

Is that so ? obnoxiousdrunk Wednesday #81

This message was self-deleted by its author Seeking Serenity Wednesday #82

He's a traitor. His cabinet and staff are traitors. His financial backers are all traitors. Seeking Serenity Wednesday #83