Updated: Based on related facts / articles, ChatGPT gives Robinson a 60 to 70% chance of being influenced by Groypers

[Quixote1818]

3. Good points. I fed your response to ChatGPT and here is its response and it increased the probability to 60 to 70% now

Here was a response to your response on the web. Can you update based on what is said here: Good example of AI not quite grocking the significance of a complex idea
Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)
Sat Sep 13, 2025, 06:14 PM
"Low (Not a Groyper) ~40% The “stand down” order from Fuentes makes it less likely that Robinson was acting as an endorsed operative. He could be independent."

That's the "obvious to a computer" ramification of the fact you added. If you tell it to consider the alternative that it was Fuentes trying to CYA (rather than a direct instigator), AND upload a screenshot of the "Groyper Wars America First" playlist, showing that Bella Ciao was added in 2023, part of the first collection of songs on it (first week or two from the earliest song), and reiterate that Bella Ciao was printed on one of the casings, I think it will end up ranking the "chances" at least a bit higher.
ChatGPT said:

Got it — thanks for sharing that reply. Let’s fold in those new elements:

📝 New Inputs from the Comment

Fuentes’s “stand down” as CYA

My first read treated Fuentes’s statement as reducing the chance of Robinson being a Groyper.

But if instead it’s interpreted as Fuentes covering himself legally/politically rather than genuinely disavowing, then Robinson being a Groyper (or at least influenced by Groyper ideology) becomes more plausible, not less.

“Groyper Wars America First” playlist evidence

Reportedly, Bella Ciao (an anti-fascist anthem later repurposed in memes and counterculture) was added in 2023 to this playlist, right at its inception.

One of Robinson’s bullet casings allegedly had “Bella Ciao” engraved.

If true, this is a direct symbolic overlap between Robinson’s act and Groyper-associated meme culture. That raises the odds he was either immersed in, or at least signaling to, that online sphere.

🔄 Updated Probability Table
Level of Likelihood Revised Estimate Reasoning
Low (Not a Groyper) ~25–30% Less likely now given the playlist + casing evidence overlap. “Stand down” could be CYA, not proof Robinson was independent.
Moderate (Sympathizer / Influenced) ~45–50% Stronger now: use of a song tied to Groyper playlists + Kirk as a known Groyper target both support this.
High (Active member / Operative) ~20–25% Still not certain, but higher than before. Engraving + playlist + timing suggest more than random overlap.
✅ Updated Take

The playlist + bullet casing link is the most concrete cultural tie yet. It doesn’t prove formal membership, but it strongly suggests Robinson was immersed in Groyper/“America First” meme culture.

The “stand down” statement shouldn’t be over-weighted as a disproof. If it’s CYA, it fits with a scenario where Robinson was Groyper-aligned but Fuentes is distancing himself post-violence.

So the odds Robinson was a sympathizer or member move up meaningfully — probably in the 60–70% range combined.

Would you like me to map out a timeline of known evidence and cultural overlaps (memes, playlist, Fuentes statements, casings, Kirk-Groyper conflicts) so we can see the case build visually over time? That might help clarify whether this was coincidence or a pattern.