Updated: Based on related facts / articles, ChatGPT gives Robinson a 60 to 70% chance of being influenced by Groypers

[Quixote1818]

The probability went up after a fellow DUer pointed out flaws in the logic. (see below). I fed their response back into ChatGPT and it updated and increased the probability to 60 to 70% from 40 to 50%.


Take this for what it's worth as it is just ChatGPT guessing:

ChatGPT final conclusion pulled from the bottom of this post. Snip:
But the chance he was a sympathizer, someone influenced by Groyper ideology or online culture overlapping with it remains fairly solid.


What the Vanity Fair Article Highlights

Some key facts & observations from the article:

The bullet casings had inscriptions like: “Notices bulges OwO what’s this?”, “Hey fascist! Catch!”, some arrows (up/right/down etc.), “Bella ciao Bella ciao Bella ciao ciao ciao”, “If you read this, you are gay lmao.” These are memes / references from internet culture and gaming.
Vanity Fair

Nothing in the publicly reported inscriptions is a known Groyper code word or explicitly traces back to Nick Fuentes or organized Groypers. The symbols seem meme-ish / trolling / internet subculture.
Vanity Fair

The article emphasizes: “little is known about his motivations or ideology.” It warns that being “extremely online” (memes, gaming culture) doesn’t automatically mean membership in any specific extremist group.
Vanity Fair

The article mentions that a photo of Robinson appeared to reference a Groyper meme, which has led to speculation, but no concrete proof.
Vanity Fair

⚖️ What That Suggests About the Probability He Was a Groyper

Putting this together, here’s my assessment of likelihood:

Likelihood Level Description Rationale
Low to Moderate (20-30%) Possible but not strongly evidenced Some meme references, trolling, possibly overlapping with Groyper-adjacent culture. But no solid proof, no explicit Groyper slogans, no convictions or public declarations.
Moderate (30-50%) More than just coincidence The intersection of trolling, conservative online circles, potential dislike of Charlie Kirk, appearance of a Groyper meme photo raise plausible links. But still speculative.
High (50-70%) Strong evidence / proven link We’re not there yet. The publicly known inscriptions & info don’t rise to confirmation that Robinson identified as a Groyper or was part of their organized circle.
✅ My Best Guess

I lean toward “Possible but not proven” — roughly 30-40% chance that Tyler Robinson had at least some ideological alignment or interest in Groypers, but not enough evidence to confidently say he was a “Groyper” proper (i.e. a member of the group, following/funding them, using their codes regularly, etc.).


Updated after I added in Nick Fuentes Telling His ‘Groyper Army’ to Stand Down

Revised Probability Estimate

Considering what we knew before (memes, online behavior, no firm evidence of Groyper ties) plus this new article, here’s an updated probability table:

Level of Likelihood Revised Estimate Reasoning
Low (Not a Groyper) ~40% The “stand down” order from Fuentes makes it less likely that Robinson was acting as an endorsed operative. He could be independent.
Moderate (Possible alignment or sympathizer) ~40–50% Memes, internet culture, online hostility toward Kirk — combined with Robinson’s ideological leanings — make this plausible. The lack of public disavowal (if involved) also leaves room.
High (Active member / Operative) ~10–20% Less likely in light of Fuentes disavowing violence. Being part of the “army” but with violence is something leadership seems distancing from.
✅ My Take (This is from ChatGPT)

I still don’t think there’s enough proof that Robinson was a “Groyper” in the formal sense (member, operatively aligned, etc.).

But the chance he was a sympathizer, someone influenced by Groyper ideology or online culture overlapping with it remains fairly solid.