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Trump's $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions - Bloomberg Radio
Nov 25, 2025 Latest Videos from Bloomberg Radio
President Donald Trump often proclaims that he’s brought the US a historic investment boom, drawing pledges he says will reach $21 trillion by the end of the year from governments and companies eager to win his favor.
If his estimate is right, the US is facing a wave of capital worth almost 70% of its annual economic output. Even spread over four years, Trump’s claim would represent the largest capital-spending explosion in post-war US history. It would also outstrip the New Deal and the nineteenth century railroad-building boom.
Bloomberg's Shawn Donnan joins Bloomberg Intelligence to discuss.
n what’s becoming the central pillar of his claim that he’s hastening a golden age, Trump now regularly declares the US economy is on course to attract $21 trillion in new investment pledges this year.
As today’s Big Take reveals, a new Bloomberg Economics analysis finds the reality is significantly more modest — though still potentially impressive in historical terms.
The White House’s tracker for new investment pledges detailed $9.6 trillion as of Monday. But much of what’s listed amounts to things that aren’t strictly investments in the US economy. Take things such as purchases of Boeing planes, AI chips and other US exports. Or simply pledges to boost mutual trade.
Strip those out, and the figure gets down to $7 trillion, Bloomberg analysis found — but even some of that has questions. Match those promises to the timeline listed by companies and the administration, and the reality is more like $1.5 trillion a year, or 5% of current GDP.
That’s still a lot, if all of it turns out to be net new investment, rather than just part of the $5.4 trillion in fixed investment the US economy now sees annually
In fact, that kind of surge would be unheard of outside of times of crisis, says Price Fishback, a University of Arizona economist who has studied fiscal interventions going back to the New Deal. The historic response to the Great Depression brought a rise in government spending of 7% of GDP, but over a decade. In the wake of other recessions, gross private sector investment has taken years to bounce back, by 4% to 5% of GDP, he says.
Even fans of Trumponomics aren’t convinced the investment boom will live up to the presidential hyperbole.
Former economic advisor Stephen Moore says Trump’s $21 trillion claim is unlikely to be realized. “But even if he’s wrong by a factor of 10, we’re still talking $2 trillion. Even if he’s off by a factor of a hundred, that’s still a lot of money.”
For its part, the White House doesn’t want to quibble about numbers. “President Trump’s dealmaking has secured trillions in investments to make and hire in America, trillions in commercial opportunities for American companies, and trillions in new export opportunities,” spokesman Kush Desai said. “No amount of media nitpicking is going to change these facts.”
President Donald Trump often proclaims that he’s brought the US a historic investment boom, drawing pledges he says will reach $21 trillion by the end of the year from governments and companies eager to win his favor.
If his estimate is right, the US is facing a wave of capital worth almost 70% of its annual economic output. Even spread over four years, Trump’s claim would represent the largest capital-spending explosion in post-war US history. It would also outstrip the New Deal and the nineteenth century railroad-building boom.
Bloomberg's Shawn Donnan joins Bloomberg Intelligence to discuss.
n what’s becoming the central pillar of his claim that he’s hastening a golden age, Trump now regularly declares the US economy is on course to attract $21 trillion in new investment pledges this year.
As today’s Big Take reveals, a new Bloomberg Economics analysis finds the reality is significantly more modest — though still potentially impressive in historical terms.
The White House’s tracker for new investment pledges detailed $9.6 trillion as of Monday. But much of what’s listed amounts to things that aren’t strictly investments in the US economy. Take things such as purchases of Boeing planes, AI chips and other US exports. Or simply pledges to boost mutual trade.
Strip those out, and the figure gets down to $7 trillion, Bloomberg analysis found — but even some of that has questions. Match those promises to the timeline listed by companies and the administration, and the reality is more like $1.5 trillion a year, or 5% of current GDP.
That’s still a lot, if all of it turns out to be net new investment, rather than just part of the $5.4 trillion in fixed investment the US economy now sees annually
In fact, that kind of surge would be unheard of outside of times of crisis, says Price Fishback, a University of Arizona economist who has studied fiscal interventions going back to the New Deal. The historic response to the Great Depression brought a rise in government spending of 7% of GDP, but over a decade. In the wake of other recessions, gross private sector investment has taken years to bounce back, by 4% to 5% of GDP, he says.
Even fans of Trumponomics aren’t convinced the investment boom will live up to the presidential hyperbole.
Former economic advisor Stephen Moore says Trump’s $21 trillion claim is unlikely to be realized. “But even if he’s wrong by a factor of 10, we’re still talking $2 trillion. Even if he’s off by a factor of a hundred, that’s still a lot of money.”
For its part, the White House doesn’t want to quibble about numbers. “President Trump’s dealmaking has secured trillions in investments to make and hire in America, trillions in commercial opportunities for American companies, and trillions in new export opportunities,” spokesman Kush Desai said. “No amount of media nitpicking is going to change these facts.”
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