Ukraine Strikes Drain Russia's War Budget - Jason Jay Smart

[TexasTowelie]

Ukrainian drones and long-range strikes are converting battlefield hits into a financial crisis for Moscow. We track how a scarce Russian support ship is disabled near Novorossiysk, while a Black Sea Fleet communications hub is cratered 295 km (183 mi) from the front, slowing command and control. Deep inside Russia, refinery strikes up to 1,400 km (870 mi) away are shrinking the diesel and jet fuel supply for soldiers and civilians alike, while damage 1,600 km (995 mi) away cuts chemicals needed for ammunition production.

The chain is straightforward. When refineries stumble, fuel gets tighter, logistics slow, and a Baltic oil hub is disrupted. This creates single points of failure, forcing the Kremlin to spend more rubles on repairs and subsidies instead of new kit. With less cash from oil exports, Moscow’s budget is strained, while command and control lags make ships and depots easier targets.

Europe is narrowing Russia’s recovery window by shooting down Russian drones over Ukraine and integrating air defenses. This cooperation raises interception rates and strengthens insurers against risk. The picture that emerges is not just on-camera damage, but consistent pressure on the balance sheet. Fewer exports mean less fuel, slower repairs, and a shrinking capacity to threaten Ukraine or Europe. The distances prove that depth inside Russia no longer equals safety.

00:00 Ukraine's Winning Strategy
01:43 The Economic Domino Effect
07:52 Putin's Growing Political Isolation
11:04 The Oligarchs Turning Against Putin
14:00 The Unstoppable Fall of the Kremlin
14:58 Outro

[MrWowWow]

1. Encore! Encore! Encore!

Knock out Russia's refineries. The revenue from fossil fuel sales to China and India together, constitutes at least 70% of Russia's economy now. Wipe out that moneymaker, and you wipe out Russia's war machine and Russia's ability to sustain it.
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Reference Information:

Open sources put Ukraine’s FP-5 “Flamingo” (hybrid) cruise missile at ~3,000 km range, which covers most Russian refineries in European Russia from typical Ukrainian launch areas.

Reference distances (great-circle, km) I calculated from representative launch points:

Ryazan refinery — ~774 km from Kyiv; ~1,007 km from Mykolaiv.

Kirishi (KINEF) — ~1,008 km from Kyiv; ~1,389 km from Mykolaiv. Recent reports confirm repeated drone strikes there.

Novokuibyshevsk (Samara region) — ~1,361 km from Kyiv; ~1,443 km from Mykolaiv. (City/refinery location widely documented.)

Nizhnekamsk / Taneco — ~1,533 km from Kyiv; ~1,675 km from Mykolaiv.

Omsk refinery — ~2,873 km from Kyiv; ~2,972 km from Mykolaiv (inside 3,000 km from much of central/southern Ukraine; outside from far-west launch sites like Lviv at ~3,313 km).


Bottom line: if Flamingo achieves its claimed 3,000 km performance, it has the reach for virtually all refineries in European Russia—and even deep targets like Omsk from central/southern Ukraine. Actual strike success still depends on routing, air-defense density, guidance, and launch location.
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Specification:
FP-5 “Flamingo” Hybrid Cruise Missile

Origin: Ukraine — Fire Point

Weight: ~6,000 kg

Length: ~12–14 m

Wingspan: ~6 m

Propulsion: solid booster + turbofan (AI-25 family reported)

Speed: ~850–900 km/h cruise, ~950 km/h max

Range: ~3,000 km

Warhead: ~1,000–1,150 kg (high-explosive)

Guidance: GNSS/GPS + INS, anti-jamming claimed

Launcher: mobile trailer / rail launcher


Supporting URLs

Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-making-long-range-missile-flamingo-1000-kg-warhead-2025-8

IISS: https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/missile-dialogue-initiative/2025/09/ukraines-flamingos-take-to-the-skies

CEPA: https://cepa.org/article/flight-of-the-flamingo-spells-trouble-for-russia

MissileMatters: https://missilematters.substack.com/p/the-flamingos-have-arrived-what-ukraines

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FP-5_Flamingo