S&P 500 closed Friday 11/21 at 6603, up 1.0% #Indexes down for week #Consumer sentiment weak #Rate cut hopes grow

[progree]

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Sat Nov 22, 2025, 07:59 AM - Edit history (209)

The S&P 500 is off 4.2% from its Oct 28 all-time high. It's suffered 5 days of losses in the last 7 trading days. Yesterday it was in pullback territory, but today it is back out of it. (Pullbacks start at 5% down, Corrections start at 10% down, Bull markets start at 20% down.). It's down 1.9% for the week

In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.

10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.06%, down 0.04 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/

Bitcoin: 84,161 (at 6am ET 11/22) down 3.3%. It's wiped out all its gains for 2025. It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (actually down 33% from that level)

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq bounce but end turbulent week with sharp losses, Yahoo Finance, 11/21/25
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-bounce-but-end-turbulent-week-with-sharp-losses-210532877.html

Scroll down to see earlier in the day reports

US equities perked up early Friday after the New York Fed president John Williams said he sees room for a cut in the "near term." That led rate-cut bets for the Fed's next meeting to spike, with traders pricing in 75% odds of a December cut, up from around 40% on Thursday. Williams' remarks come amid evidence of a deeply divided Fed heading into its final meeting of 2025.

But Friday's gains failed to undo a losing week for stocks amid mounting concerns over an AI-fueled "bubble." Not even Nvidia (NVDA) and its CEO, Jensen Huang, could allay those fears after the AI chipmaker's blowout earnings reveal on Wednesday. The chipmaker ended Friday's trading session in the red, down just shy of 1%.

All three US gauges recorded weekly losses, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and the Nasdaq off near 3%. Both indexes ended Thursday's down session at their lowest levels since September..

While stocks have seesawed, cryptocurrencies are also feeling the heat. Bitcoin sank on Friday to trade as low as $82,000, deepening a slide from record-high levels just more than a month ago. It is now heading for its worst month since the crypto collapse of 2022.

Meanwhile, a measure of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan showed sentiment deteriorated further in November to a reading of 51, as worries about higher prices and job losses remained top of mind.
((DU thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143569592 -progree))

There were also these reports Friday, but I haven't looked at it, but I've seen some doleful headlines:
S&P flash U.S. services and U..S. manufacturing PMI's

How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 11/21/2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-212309852.html

On Friday:

The S&P 500 rose 64.23 points, or 1%, to 6,602.99.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 493.15 points, or 1.1%, to 46,245.41.

The Nasdaq composite rose 195.03 points, or 0.9%, to 22,273.08.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 64.48 points, or 2.8%, to 2,369.59.

For the week:

The S&P 500 is down 131.12 points, or 1.9%.

The Dow is down 902.07 points, or 1.9%.

The Nasdaq is down 627.51 points, or 2.7%.

The Russell 2000 is down 18.64 points, or 0.8%.

For the year ((year-to-date, i.e. since December 31 -progree))

The S&P 500 is up 721.36 points, or 12.3%.

The Dow is up 3,701.19 points, or 8.7%.

The Nasdaq is up 2,962.29 points, or 15.3%.

The Russell 2000 is up 139.43 points, or 6.3%.

========
Coming up, non-government reports: I haven't updated this yet, ditto govt reports
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Government reports: I haven't looked at yet, but I see headlines that the October's CPI report has been cancelled and the November CPI won't be released prior to the Fed's December 10 rate-setting meeting. The November report was originally scheduled for 830 AM ET Dec 10, - several hours before the Fed's decision.

Yesterday or the day before we learned that they won't see the November jobs report until days after their meeting. And there won't be an October jobs report. The headline non-farm payrolls part for October will be presented with the November data, but again the November report won't come out until days after their meeting. The October unemployment rate will never be presented

=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Thursday November 20 at 6539, down 1.6% for the day,
and up 13.1% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 9.0% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 11.2% year-to-date (since the December 31 close)

and down 4.2% from its October 28 all-time-high

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

========================================================

I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Thursday at 45,752, and it closed Friday at 46,245, a rise of 1.1% (493 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)



I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
🚨   ❤️   😬! < - - emoticon library for future uses

[progree]

1. Kicking for the milestone update - S&P 500's first close below the election day close. How major indexes fared:

Last edited Tue Mar 4, 2025, 04:51 PM - Edit history (1)

How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, AP, 3/4/2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-211928579.html

Here's the Year-to-date ones from the article:
# S&P 500: down 1.8%
# Dow: down 0.1%
# Nasdaq down: 5.3%
# Russell 2000 (the small caps): down 6.8%

Not in the article is that the S&P 500 is down 5.9% from its all time closing high of 6144 on Feb 19.

[progree]

2. Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500)

See OP for the statistics.

[progree]

3. Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close

See OP for details

[progree]

4. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close

see OP for details.

[progree]

5. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory

Details in OP.

[progree]

6. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day

See OP for details, and a graph of the DOW.

[progree]

7. Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high

Details in the OP.

[progree]

8. Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day

Details in the OP.

[progree]

9. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day

Details in OP.

[progree]

10. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day

Details in OP.

[progree]

11. S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH

Details in OP. ATH is All Time High. I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. It looks like the Trump slump since election day is about at an end, only 0.1% down since election day, and with 3 straight market days of gains. Since inauguration day, its down 3.7%.

[progree]

12. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH

ATH is All Time High. Details in OP including more comparisons like down 5.4% since pre-inauguration day, and down 3.6% year-to-date.

I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. Note this closing is moments before the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs, so it's a good benchmark to compare to what follows in the next few days.

[Arizona78]

13. We're nearing the top.

Trump’s bill could soon trigger a repo market crisis and push America and much of the world—toward bankruptcy. Something massive is on the horizon. Get ready.

[Arizona78]

14. Krugman

Paul Krugman is deeply concerned about the uncontrolled rise in debt, which could sharply push up interest rates leading to bankruptcy.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trumps-big-beautiful-debt-bomb

[Hugin]

15. Thanks for your updates in this thread, progree.

I look at it often.

[progree]

16. And thanks, I appreciate that 😊 And thanks for pinning /nt

[Hugin]

17. I'm not seeing much financial ink out there on the dump...

Crypto has taken over the last week or so. BTC $120K to ~ $97K.

[progree]

18. Me neither, until it broke the 20% down threshold to becoming a bear market

I'm seeing that proclaimed in a couple of articles in the yahoo.finance.com page today.

It's all-time high in October was over $126,000. Right now as I post this, it's 96,277, down 23.6%

I've been reporting Bitcoin near the top of my OP each time I update anything, along with the 10-year Treasury yield. I'm not sure why, but a lot of people are interested in it. Actually, it's kind of against my "religion", given the amount of electricity and water that bitcoin "miners" consume. I read recently that just ONE Bitcoin transaction uses as much electricity as does the average U.S. household over 38 days (more than a month!)

I might buy the Bitcoin evangelists' argument that bitcoin's high value (still) is that they keep the bitcoin supply very limited. But there are all kinds of new cryptocurrencies being created and eventually the amount of money available from people willing to support this ever-expanding ocean of speculative crypto-investments will reach a peak. (And besides, rarity doesn't guarantee high value).

[Hugin]

19. "rarity doesn't guarantee high value"...

If I had a nickel for every time I’d said that.

I am far from liking anything about crypto. I try to avoid things that are easy to buy and difficult to sell. I do monitor it, tho. Due to its position in the techbro’s DOW -> AI -> Crypto financial ouroboros.