Leading indicators are indicators that usually, but not always, change before the economy as a whole changes. The Conference Board publishes a composite Leading Economic Index consisting of ten indicators designed to predict activity in the U. S. economy six to nine months in future.
1 Average weekly hours (manufacturing)
2 Average weekly initial jobless claims for unemployment insurance
3 Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods/materials
4 Vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index) measured by a monthly survey from the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM).
5 Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods
6 Building permits for new private housing units.
7 Stock prices of 500 common stocks
8 Leading Credit Index
9 Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury vs. Federal Funds target)
10 Index of consumer expectations — The data for this component comes from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center, and is released once a month.
Lagging indicators are indicators that usually change after the economy as a whole does. Typically the lag is a few quarters of a year.
1 The average duration of unemployment (inverted)
2 The value of outstanding commercial and industrial loans
3 The change in the Consumer Price Index for services
4 The change in labour cost per unit of output
5 The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales
6 The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to personal income
7 The average prime rate charged by banks
Coincident indicators change at approximately the same time as the whole economy, thereby providing information about the current state of the economy. There are four economic statistics comprising the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators:
1 Number of employees on non-agricultural payrolls
2 Personal income less transfer payments
3 Industrial production
4 Manufacturing and trade sale
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve produces state-level coincident indexes based on 4 state-level variables:
1 Nonfarm payroll employment
2 Average hours worked in manufacturing
3 Unemployment rate
4 Wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average)
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