Tariffs Caused 90% of U.S. Economic Indicators to Turn Negative Fundraiser - Econ Lessons

[TexasTowelie]

My name is Mark, and I love Economics. Where is the US economy going? The tariffs and negative comparative advantage have shifted the economy. Despite a strong labor market on paper, the U.S. economy shows clear signs of strain, based on data from reliable sources. These are time-tested economic indicators. A cascade of leading indicators—including the Conference Board’s LEI, consumer sentiment, manufacturing new orders, and container shipments from China—are all in decline. The yield curve remains inverted, which has historically predicted recession.

Consumer credit card debt is surging, and household confidence is slipping, as confirmed by quirky but telling metrics like the Lipstick Index and falling champagne sales. Even Elliott Wave models and sunspot activity, traditionally viewed as economic noise, now align with the broader warning signs.

Meanwhile, lagging indicators like payroll employment and personal income are holding steady, but these tend to reflect past, not future, conditions.

The disconnect between "headline" data and deeper market signals suggests that storm clouds are gathering, and the economy may already be slowing beneath the surface.