SpaceX valued at just $780 billion by Morningstar, less than half its IPO target

[question everything]

Source: finance.yahoo.com

SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) just got slapped with a bearish valuation ahead of its monster IPO coming up later this month. The report signals that one of the most anticipated offerings in years may be significantly overpriced, just as CEO Elon Musk tries to justify the valuation.

Morningstar initiated coverage of SpaceX with a fair-value estimate of just $780 billion, less than half the roughly $1.8 trillion valuation the company is targeting in its initial public offering.

Analyst Nicolas Owens’s discounted cash flow model valued SpaceX’s core launch and Starlink satellite businesses at about $611 billion in enterprise value, plus an additional $170 billion in “probability-weighted scenarios” for the company’s AI operations.


Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/spacex-valued-at-just-780-billion-by-morningstar-less-than-half-its-ipo-target-174617034.html

[dave99]

1. stupid piece of crap is only 'worth' a few 100 million. Everything else is HYPE. don't fall for it !!

[EX500rider]

4. "only 'worth' a few 100 million"

That seem unlikely with revenue of $18.67 billion last year for SpaceX/Starlink

[dave99]

6. revenue -- final line ?

[pat_k]

13. If Starlink income wasn't swamped by xAI losses it might be a decent investment.

Starlink is the "cash cow." But with the acquisition of xAI the "company" as a whole is a dog.

The entire U.S. economy is currently an all-in bet on AI. I see no reason to pump the bubble up with an absurd xAI over-valuation buried inside SpaceX

SpaceX Segment Financials (2025)

Overall operating loss $2.60 billion

Connectivity (primarily Starlink)
Operating Income $𝟒.𝟒𝟐 billion

Space (Launches and Nasa)
Operating Loss $0.657 billion.

AI (xAI)
Operating Loss 6.36 billion

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Musk is counting on irrational exuberance among his cult followers to keep early demand high for the stock

The sober investors contemplating buying it in the IPO have to work out if that will keep the price high enough for them to offload it way above its true value; and those buying in the subsequent market have to work out if the cult will keep it high long enough for NASDAQ index trackers to have to buy it, whatever the price.

Then the question will become if it stays up long enough for the forced purchases by S&P 500 index trackers to arrive.

Personally I hold an S&P 500 tracker, and hope that it crashes before it gets to the point it has to buy it. I also hold 2 world index trackers, and I have no idea when their rules will force them to buy it. I'd hope they're more conservative than the NASDAQ fanbois.

[paulkienitz]

17. Over the last year I have backed out of all my large-cap and index-tracking funds.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Lots of competition in Space Exploration

Don't go for the cyber truck of spaceships.

Go with the infrastructure suppliers, the electronics.

oh. There is this:

Priced according to Eloon's ego. It's almost like a Golden Arch or a Ballroom.

[BootinUp]

5. I doubt even that makes sense. Nt

[Prairie Gates]

7. Who could have known that there was a massive downside risk to being hyperpartisan and nationalist

in an industry that requires government contracts both foreign and domestic. And an early entrant into an industry with a lot of downstream competition coming online.

Seriously, what Democratic administration for the next 40 years won't be tempted to zero out SpaceX contracts the way Elon and his merry band of idiots zeroed out NEH grants?

[pat_k]

8. I hate that the SpaceX piece of shit will probably be added to my XMAG ETF.

I'm not sure what to do about this.

I transfered from a standard s&p index to XMAG to limit exposure to AI, Musk, and other tech bros absurdly inflated values.

I wish there were an XMAG that excluded the "Magnificent 10 and SpaceX, whatever market capitalization SpaceX debuts at.

[WSHazel]

9. $60 to $70 billion tops

Starlink is the entire value of the company. The space business should be done by the government, and the AI has significant negative value and the company would be worth more long term if it was just shut down. Twitter is worth maybe $5 billion, probably less.

The problem with Starlink is that as developing worth countries continue to build out their cell infrastructure, Starlink becomes less valuable. The EU is building their own Starlink for military purposes.

[OGBuzz]

10. And Elon Musk owns approx. 42% of Space X, so his net worth will increase by $750 billion and send him...

well on his way to $2 trillion. There is something obscene about all this.
But hey, Elon did manage to destroy USAID causing the deaths of over 750,000 people (so far) due to stoppage in medical, nutritional, and humanitarian aid.

[moonshinegnomie]

11. i think teh IPO will mark a market top

besides being way overvalued s&P funds are going to have to buy a big slug of the IPO. they will have to get teh cash selling other stocks and with the mag 7 being the majorit of teh s&p thats what they will have to sell puttin gpressure on the market. betwen spacex,open ai anthroponic and teh other ipos coming i thing we are very near the top.
Ive sold a lot of my stocks and have put the proceeds into cash.

(disclaimer: i trade stocks for a living and spend 20+ years on the commodity floor )

[eringer]

12. Can SpaceX install data centers in space on Elon's timeline?

Nicholas Owen’s thinks not. He is betting against SpaceX which will have the money from the IPO to make it happen. That will drive the valuation.
Based on its history, SpaceX should make short work of it.

[paulkienitz]

16. There is no good business case for data centers in space.

The whole idea is just a piece of the AI bubble.

[eringer]

18. Environmental Issues Must be Overcome

Business case is there given the NIBY mentality governing earth based sites. It will take lots of money and brainpower to make it happen but the rewards are there if someone is not adverse to the risks. I can only think of one guy that’s willing to put it “all on the black”. It’s really the only reason he is going public.
Nicholas projected valuation assumes you are buying a launch company. In my opinion, he either hasn’t done his homework or is very naive. In either case, he is no rocket scientist on this subject.

[LudwigPastorius]

19. How many times have Elon's timelines been met?

5 month-old article just on things he promised happening by 2025:

https://mashable.com/article/elon-musk-failed-to-deliver-on-2025-promises

[turbinetree]

14. Well maybe if Muskrat should fix the issue of his rockets exploding..................

[paulkienitz]

15. Morningstar is being wildly optimistic.

I assume because they are bought in to the AI bubble.