Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports
Source: CNBC
Published Tue, Nov 25 20258:15 AM EST
The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday. Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago.
With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative data like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture. Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payrolls count won’t come out until December.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve won’t have much of the usual data they use to make forecasts when they meet again Dec. 9-10. However, in recent days, several officials have advocated for additional interest rate cuts, causing the market to recalibrate expectations to now expecting a reduction at next month’s meeting.
“With the next jobs report now scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to derail a cut on December 10,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a client note Sunday.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/private-payroll-losses-accelerated-in-the-past-four-weeks-adp-reports-.html
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This is something new called NER Pulse, a 4-week tracker released weekly which they began on October 28.
https://www.adpresearch.com/meeting-the-moment-adps-new-weekly-labor-market-pulse/
Like the debut of the NER, the launch of NER pulse is meeting a critical moment in the economy, which is being transformed by AI, demographic change, and short-term business cycle fluctuations. The NER pulse of private-sector hiring will provide a dynamic and granular view of job creation and loss at an unprecedented weekly frequency.
Three times a month, Main Street Macro will release preliminary estimates of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These releases will have a two-week time lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.
We will continue to publish the final National Employment Report each month. This monthly report is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month and typically publishes on the first Wednesday of the month. It provides breakdowns by industry, geography, and employer size, both seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted. We won’t publish the NER pulse during NER release weeks.
The release today is for the 4 weeks ending November 8. Extrapolating data from the previous report, it implies job losses for the week ending November 8 were likely significantly more than the 4-week average of -13,500..
