Candidates head for a runoff in north metro state Senate race

[Dulcinea]

Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

(Atlanta Journal-Constitution) A Democrat will move into a runoff election to represent a stretch of Fulton and Cherokee counties that has been a Republican stronghold for decades and overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump last November.

Debra Shigley, an Alpharetta resident and former attorney, was the top finisher in a special election to replace state Sen. Brandon Beach, whom Trump tapped earlier this year to serve as U.S. treasurer. Shigley, the lone Democrat in the race, finished with 39.5% of the vote, benefiting from Republican votes splitting among six GOP candidates.

“We’re very excited and encouraged,” she said.

Unofficial vote totals posted late Tuesday suggested Shigley would compete against Republican Jason Dickerson, who received 17.4% of the vote, in the runoff election Sept. 23. But the race for second place was startlingly close, with Dickerson edging out fellow Republican Steve West by just 65 votes. West could call for a recount.

Read more: https://www.ajc.com/politics/2025/08/candidates-head-for-a-runoff-in-north-metro-state-senate-race/

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This is a big deal in a ruby red district in a crucial swing state!

[BumRushDaShow]

1. Most certainly is

and those 2 runner up GOPers are nearly tied with each other at ~17% of the vote each (meaning ~34% if the votes for both went to one)... meaning STILL losing to the Democrat if her votes hold in the general!

[TheRickles]

2. But if voters for the 5 Repubs all coalesce around him, she'll lose 60/40. :-(

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Here are the latest numbers

https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/08/26/live-results-for-georgias-special-state-senate-election/

Since this is a small (i.e., not "County" sized) area, with votes coming from across multiple counties including Fulton, and since "incumbency" tended to have voters (who showed up) keep voting for the same person over and over, the dynamic might be different this time. If you have this kind of almost equal split between the top 2 GOPers, you might have those who favor the one who doesn't make the cut, not vote at all, particularly given that adding 1 (D) (if you don't vote) wouldn't change much in that chamber in terms of being a GOP majority (it was 32 (R) - 23 (D) plus this one vacancy).

[TheRickles]

4. I hope you're right, but I kinda doubt it.

Thanks for the link, but the R's would be just as likely to rally around their remaining candidate as the D's would be (especially if it's framed as a way to own the libs, etc.). And while it's true that a supermajority wasn't at stake here as it was in Iowa, any big % shift from red to blue in these pre-2026 elections is significant, IMO.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Politics can be wacky when you have a "comfortable" majority

I.e., the "enemy" is no longer the other party but those within your party who don't strictly adhere to the "leader"'s agenda. And for them, that means MAGat vs RINO.

I don't know the philosophies of those top two GOPers and whether they are trying to out-MAGat each other or are MAGat vs something else, but that would make a difference.

But note that GA has become "swing" recently, including having the unthinkable 2 Democratic Senators (and was close even in 2024), versus IA, that swung blue in 2008/2012, but hasn't swung back since. Am hoping the trend will continue! Certainly Ossoff hopes so.