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cliffside

(925 posts)
Tue May 20, 2025, 11:23 PM May 20

CBO Confirms GOP Budget Bill Triggers Medicare Cuts

Source: House Committee on the Budget

"WASHINGTON, DC — Congressman Brendan F. Boyle (PA-02), Ranking Member of the House Budget Committee, released the following statement after the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that the Republican budget bill would trigger more than $500 billion in automatic cuts to Medicare under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go (‘PAYGO’) Act:

“This Republican budget bill is one of the most expensive—and dangerous—bills Congress has seen in decades. The nonpartisan CBO makes it clear: the deficit will explode so badly it will trigger automatic cuts, including over half a trillion dollars from Medicare.

This is what Republicans do—pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires by going after programs families rely on the most: Medicaid, food assistance, and now Medicare. It’s reckless, dishonest, and deeply harmful to the middle class.”

As Republican holdouts are demanding even more cuts to health care, there is no reason to believe the members of the current Republican conference will disarm this budget time bomb."



Read more: https://democrats-budget.house.gov/news/press-releases/cbo-confirms-gop-budget-bill-triggers-medicare-cuts

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Silent Type

(9,641 posts)
2. Well f%#k me. Just looked, that "Pay as You Go" Bill was a Democratic Bill, signed by Obama in 2010.
Tue May 20, 2025, 11:38 PM
May 20

Fortunately, I think there are many exceptions that might help avoid the Medicare cut. But there sure won’t be any increases.

It probably made sense at time because who could predict trump.

cliffside

(925 posts)
5. Made me look :) More here - PAYGO's History and Impact on Fiscal Discipline
Wed May 21, 2025, 12:03 AM
May 21

short article, it can be broken.

Rep Boyle will be testifying tonight at 1 am, should be interesting.

https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/policybasics-paygo.pdf

The “Pay-As-You-Go” Budget Rule

"The pay-as-you-go rule, also known as PAYGO, is designed to encourage Congress to offset the cost of any legislation that increases spending on entitlement programs or reduces revenues so it doesn’t expand the deficit. Under PAYGO, Congress must pay for such legislation by reducing other entitlement spending or increasing other revenues.

Congress and the President first established a PAYGO law in 1990 as part of a bipartisan budget summit agreement to reduce the large deficits the nation faced. It aimed to prevent future Congresses from reversing the tax increases and entitlement cuts both parties accepted as part of that agreement. PAYGO played a key role in helping reduce and then eliminate the deficit.

In the late 1990s, however, Congress and the President began waiving PAYGO in response to the booming economy and several years of budget surpluses. In 2001 they waived PAYGO enforcement and approved very large tax cuts without offsets — a sharp departure from PAYGO discipline. This set the stage for other PAYGO exceptions. In 2002 Congress allowed PAYGO to expire, facilitating the passage of deficit-increasing tax and entitlement legislation over the next several years, including the 2003 tax cuts and the Medicare prescription drug bill.

Partly because of the return of large deficits, Congress used its internal rules to reinstate the PAYGO principle in 2007. It decided to prohibit the consideration of legislation that would break the PAYGO principle. In 2010, Congress and the President also reestablished PAYGO as a law, very much like the 1990 law..."

summer_in_TX

(3,594 posts)
10. PAYGO was designed to refute the Republican smear of Dems as being "tax and spend libruls"
Wed May 21, 2025, 01:00 AM
May 21

Worked as intended to some degree.

dweller

(26,613 posts)
7. Face it - Project 2025
Wed May 21, 2025, 12:11 AM
May 21

Intends to make Medicare Advantage the default for retiree’s choice .

This will take it there .


✌🏻

cliffside

(925 posts)
8. Video link to Rep Boyle on Lawrence tonight ...
Wed May 21, 2025, 12:14 AM
May 21

short video, transcript available if you click on "more" in the description and then "transcript."



flamingdem

(40,429 posts)
11. Why is this not the NUMBER ONE story?
Wed May 21, 2025, 11:44 AM
May 21

Medicare cuts now???

C'mon seniors, time to step up!!!

scipan

(2,810 posts)
12. pdf letter from the cbo
Wed May 21, 2025, 12:09 PM
May 21

I got into the weeds a little. Here is what I think is the heart of it:

How Would Sequestration Affect Medicare and Other Programs,
Assuming That Funding Subject to Sequestration Remained Equal to the
Amounts in CBO’s January 2025 Baseline Projections?
Under S-PAYGO, reductions in Medicare spending are limited to 4 percent—
or an estimated $45 billion for fiscal year 2026. That would leave $185 billion
to be sequestered from the federal budget’s remaining direct spending
accounts in that year.
S-PAYGO exempts many large accounts, including those that provide funding
for Social Security and low-income programs. Therefore, in CBO’s
estimation, OMB would have roughly $120 billion in budgetary resources
available for cancellation in 2026—less than the remaining amount that would
be required to be sequestered.3


4% may not seem like much but consider that healthcare costs rise by a good amount each year, idk, and who knows how it would be applied. Maybe NO payments for the last weeks of each fiscal year? Unless of course paygo is waived in a future congress. A catastrophe if you get sick at the wrong time of the year.

Even worse for the other budget items that are not exempt, because apparently they would be zeroed out.

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(123,715 posts)
14. WA: Po Trump and GOP's tax bill would force cuts to Medicare, CBO says
Thu May 22, 2025, 01:48 AM
May 22

By Jacob Bogage and Abha Bhattarai

President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans’ mammoth tax and immigration bill would add so much to the national debt that it could force nearly $500 billion in cuts to Medicare beginning in 2026, Congress’s nonpartisan bookkeeper reported late Tuesday.

Trump and the GOP’s budget reconciliation package — officially titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — would add $2.3 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office projected, forcing budget officials to mandate across-the-board spending cuts over that window that would hit the federal health insurance program for seniors and people with disabilities.

When legislation significantly adds to the national debt, which already exceeds $36.2 trillion, it triggers “sequestration,” or compulsory budgetary reductions. In that scenario, Medicare cuts would be capped at 4 percent annually, or $490 billion over 10 years, the CBO reported in response to a request from Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pennsylvania), the top Democrat on the Budget Committee.

“Having Medicare cuts suddenly enter the discussion has struck a lot of people by surprise,” said Timothy D. McBride, a health economist at Washington University in St. Louis. “Taking out 4 percent of the Medicare budget might not sound like much, but everything hurts at this point.”

https://wapo.st/4k5Gi2A

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