Cooking the books? Fears Trump could target statisticians if data disappoints

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: The Guardian

Sun 18 May 2025 09.00 EDT


Summarizing his befuddlement with numbers, Mark Twain observed that there were “lies, damned lies and statistics”. The acerbic phrase later become so deeply embedded in popular consciousness that it once formed the title to an episode of The West Wing, NBC’s portrayal of a fictitious US president played by Martin Sheen. Now professional economists and number-crunchers fear the aphorism could become a White House theme in real life. Buffeted by global markets and public opinion – both of which show a wary skepticism of Donald Trump’s affinity for trade wars – the president may be about to turn his renowned hostility to truths at odds with what he believes towards public servants charged with producing accurate information.

A proposed rule change making it easier to fire civil servants deemed to be “intentionally subverting presidential directives” could pave the way for the White House to fire statisticians employed to produce objective data on the economy but whose figures prove politically inconvenient, experts warn. Statistics released by agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are used by the Federal Reserve Bank to set inflation policy and interest rates. They also form the basis on which businesses and investors take decisions.

The US’s global reputation as a stable economic power and a reliable partner goes hand-in-hand with its long history of producing accurate data, dating back to the establishment of the BLS in 1884. Interfere with the latter and you risk sacrificing the former, experts warn. But with Trump under pressure to explain shrinking gross domestic product (GDP) figures amid economists’ warnings that tariffs could trigger a recession, the administration could use new employment rules to pressure workers into “cooking the books”.

“There are a number of changes to the civil service that make it much easier for the administration to try to interfere with the activities of the statistical agencies and that worries me,” said Erica Groshen, a specialist in government statistics at Cornell University. While acknowledging that there is as yet “no evidence” the Trump administration has done so, Groshen, a former commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), fears a new rule proposed last month by the White House’s office of personnel management threatens the future integrity of federal agencies’ figures.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/18/trump-statisticians-economy-figures

[relayerbob]

1. Could?

I assume he already is, and planned to all along. That would be one of the key points of screwing up so much of the data collection and analysis service.

[gab13by13]

2. I was just about to post this under Raw Story

If the numbers crunchers at (BLS0 and (BEA) come out with economic numbers that make Krasnov look bad, he will fire them.

They do have a choice, either come out with favorable Krasnov numbers, even if it means cooking the books, or be fired and a Krasnov fluffer will take their places.

I don't trust the numbers right now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/rule-change-would-allow-trump-to-cook-the-books-and-hide-collapsing-economy-report/ar-AA1F0enx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=0093d0fdefbb4787af66f673c021726c&ei=12

[BaronChocula]

3. This occurred to me recently

Especially with recession possible. Most people will probably hear about the National Bureau of Economic Research for the first time. I imagine when they make a determination of recession, they will be called out by the rapist classified document thief for being "dumb partisan hacks."

[LudwigPastorius]

4. Of course he's going to/is doing this.

He needs "evidence" that he is the bigliest, stable president of all time.

[elleng]

5. NO DOUBT he'll cook the books.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

6. A Florida civil servant maintained a database of statewide COVID deaths.

When she wouldn't falsify her figures to match DeSatan's politcal statements (i.e., There nothing to see here, move along) she was fired.

To her credit she continued to maintain the dashboard, calling county health agencies to gather accurate information.