Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected and lowest since 2021

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Tue, May 13 2025 8:31 AM EDT | Updated 9 Min Ago


Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.



The monthly readings were a bit higher than in March though price increases remain well off their highs of three years ago

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/cpi-inflation-april-2025.html

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CPI for all items rises 0.2% in April; shelter up https://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
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8:31 AM · May 13, 2025

Article updated.

Previous article/headline -

Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected

Published Tue, May 13 2025 8:31 AM EDT | Updated 1 Min Ago


Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump's tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate and slightly below the annual forecast for 2.4%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Original article -

Published Tue, May 13 2025 8:31 AM EDT


The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.2% in April for a 2.4% annual inflation rate, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

[gab13by13]

1. Are these the real numbers?

Sorry but like the boy who cried wolf, after time, people just won't believe you.

[groundloop]

5. I can't believe anything coming from this administration.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. The original reads like the usual BLS no-style style.

I can just see Jack Webb standing at a lectern reading the report to assembled financial reporters.

[Bengus81]

3. Hell...when Trump tariffs destroys the economy those numbers could be 1.5%

But the prices you pay at the store and other places are baked in and are NOT going down.

[Self Esteem]

10. It's possible the tariffs don't destroy the economy.

Trump has made enough concessions that we're looking at a very real possibility that nothing actually happens.

Democrats maybe overplayed their hand by pushing the narrative of a modern great depression in response to the tariffs and... it's possible the economy continues to just chug along.

[Bengus81]

12. 30% on China good right now is HUGE. Just not as ridiculous as 145%

[Self Esteem]

14. And it's still possible it doesn't impact the economy like many claimed.

When do we start feeling the ramifications of the tariffs?

I think there's likely to be some economic pullback but it's not going to be as severe as so many people told us and if the US doesn't fall into a recession, the narrative is probably not going to be favorable for the Democrats. They'll be seen as alarmist who predicted a great depression...

[Skittles]

19. bottom line is

repukes do not CARE if we have to pay more or if we don't have healthcare - THEY DON'T CARE - Dems need to make sure EVERYONE sees the freaking obvious

[mwmisses4289]

4. Ok, so it rose a little bit?

For real people who actually work for a living that means... what? Things cost another another couple of bucks more? On top of what what the tariffs are adding to the price of stuff?
Great job, repukes.

[mdbl]

6. I still am waiting for all the deflation in prices the orange buffoon promised.

[HereForTheParty]

7. Have the effects of the tariffs rippled through to store shelves?

Given lead times?

[twodogsbarking]

8. I smell Sharpie.

[Self Esteem]

9. Fortunately, you can compare prices yourself.

Just look at your budget over the last few months and see if things are way more expensive, somewhat more expensive, the same or cheaper than previous months.

[twodogsbarking]

16. The expectation is that prices will go up so when they don't go up as much as projected it is a win for us.

[littlemissmartypants]

11. DOGE Boy math? ...

All numbers coming from the regime will be suss from now until.

[mathematic]

13. Tariffs are a tax and have disinflationary effects via reduced aggregate demand

It's not straightfoward if the tariffs will reduce inflation due to this disinflationary effect or increase inflation due to reducing productivity (from taxing more efficiently made foreign goods). Or if short term effects like the price shock raises inflation expectations (which feed into realized higher inflation).

There is a lot of second-rate economic analysis that has gone on with respect to the tariffs. The only thing you can say for certain is that we will be poorer than otherwise if none of this tariff policy existed in the first place. Neither recession nor increased inflation are guaranteed.

Also, we are not in a recession right now. Q1 GDP will almost certainly be revised upwards as better measurement of Q1 business inventories and Q1 consumption come in.

[progree]

15. Graphs - rolling 3 month average and month-over-month, both annualized

News report from the source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

I annualize everything to be comparable to each other and to compare to the Fed's 2% target

They are calculated using the actual index values, not from the rounded off monthly change numbers.

The CPI rise averaged 1.6% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 2.1%)
The April one month increase annualized is: CPI: 2.7%, (core CPI: 2.9%)

REGULAR CPI


CORE CPI


Both the CPI and Core CPI 3 month rolling average were helped a lot when the huge January increases dropped out of the 3-month window.

The rolling 12 months averages graphs are in the OP. They were helped by last year's big April 2024 month-over-month increases dropping out of the 12 month window. What drops out of the window is just as important as what enters the 12 month window (which is the latest).

Next month, the rolling 12 month average will not be helped by the "drop out" effect because May 2024 month-over-month increases that are dropping out of the 12 month windows are small: just 0.5% ANNUALIZED for the CPI, and 1.7% ANNUALIZED for the core CPI.

[rsdsharp]

17. That can't possibly be right.

Just this morning I heard Donnie Dumbass tell the Saudis that the US has NO inflation.

He wouldn’t lie. Would he?

[progree]

18. Trump calls on Fed to cut rates, saying prices of 'practically everything' are down, Reuters, 5/13

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-fed-cut-rates-175540927.html

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday repeated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, saying prices for gas, groceries and "practically everything else" are down.

"No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!! THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done," Trump said on Truth Social.

"What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing!," Trump added, repeating criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Short article, no more at link.

Not true - see graphs in #15 and OP above. Prices overall were up 0.2% from March to April.
One can see the components month-by-month increases and annual increase in the Table A at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Gasoline declined 0.1% but energy overall is up 0.7% in April. It's true that groceries are down 0.4% (after a 0% increase in February and a 0.5% increase in March). Food away from home is up 0.4% each month for the past 3 months.

"Practically everything else" is up.

And BTW, Mr. President, Powell doesn't make the rate decisions. It's made by a vote of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of which Powell is one of twelve votes.

[totodeinhere]

20. Economic policies usually have a lead time to take effect. This low inflation rate we are seeing now

can be attributed to Biden Administration policies. What Trump is doing now with his brain-dead economic policies and tariffs will surely tank our economy and cause inflation to rise again in time. And then when the pukes are booted out of power as will surely happen after the next elections it will take the Democrats time to undo the damage.