i'm not fully understanding the strategery involved in trying to take kharg island

[unblock]

putting aside how stupid the war is in the first place and so on, i just want to understand this from a purely militaristic point of view.

i understand from wiki that 90% of iran's oil has gone through kharg island, it has deep waters around it and can load up 10 supertankers at once. sounds like a huge operation.

however, that was then, this is now. iran has mined the straits of hormuz, and kharg island is up in the persian gulf, where tankers need to go through the straits to get out to the rest of the world. with the straits mined, they can only trade with other nations on the persian gulf -- iraq, kuwait, saudi arabia, bahrain, qatar, and uae. what would the plan be? sell oil to saudi arabia, who then transports it all the way to the other side and onto a tanker in the red sea? which then has to pass through the straits of bab-el-mandeb, where the houthis in yemen can attack them?

seems to me the iran, as part of the decision to mine the straits of hormuz, decided they would get their oil out by way of the gulf of oman, so they don't have to go through the straits.

in other words, while kharg island may have been very valuable economically and strategically prior to the mining of the straits of hormuz, it is now far, far less valuable to iran, and basically worthless to the u.s. -- i mean, what are we going to do with it? iran certainly isn't going to send any more oil there, in fact they're surely in the process of pulling back all the oil stored there so it's safer on the mainland.


am i missing something? we can't get naval support in there because of the mined straits, so i guess we airlift all the troops and cargo. sounds like a good way to get a lot of our troops killed. i have no doubt we'd be able to take the island, but at what cost, and then what? we'd be constantly under attack by cheap drones and such, all to control an island that iran mostly isn't using anymore, certainly not to the extent it was prior to the war.

i guess kharg island has value to iran in that after the war, they could sweep the mines and clear the straits and resume operations. so if the idea is to permanently hold the island, or use it as a negotiating weapon, maybe that has some value. but again, iran has surely already made plans to have an oil industry without that island as part of the decision to mine the straits, so i don't know how big of a negotiating point this is.

what am i missing?

[Renew Deal]

1. I agree. It doesn't make sense

If the US takes the island, 2 million barrels per day go offline. Oil is pumped to the island using pipes. If the Iranians turn off the oil, there is nothing for the US to export. The only way for it to work financially is to take a significant portion of Iran's oil infrastructure, which I don't think there's much of an appetite for. That's besides the question of how Iran would react. Would they torch the island or attack neighboring oil infrastructure or both? It also doesn't deal with the fact that that Iran has other ways to get oil out.

It seems that the choices are take the island and reduce the oil supply or leave the island alone and continue giving Iran sanctions relief because of the oil supply. Another reason Trump probably wants the island is saving face. He can claim he did something and is so powerful, but that doesn't achieve any military objective.


Source for the 2 million barrels number: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/19/why-targeting-kharg-island-could-backfire-on-trump-00834972

[unblock]

6. right, the oil supply question is playing a weird role in tactics.

iran is trying to lower world oil supply to put pressure on america and the world, even at the expense of its own revenue.

taking kharg island seems to be trying hurt iran's revenue even at the expense of lowering world oil supply. in the short term, we seem to be helping iran's plan along.

maybe the idea is just to take the island so donnie can sell it to the saudis (for personal profit, no doubt), who can then operate it and take a cut of all iranian oil that passes through it once the war ends and normal operations resume. doesn't have much to do with iran's alleged nuclear activities or israel's security or whatever, but that would be par for the course for the criminal-in-chief.

i.e., maybe it doesn't make sense because it's not a military mission, it's a financial one....

[MineralMan]

2. It is far beyond understanding.

[Bettie]

3. Well, when my oldest son was three

he decided that the thing he wanted most in the world was "the white hammer"....after we figured out what that was, we let him carry the lint roller around for a few days before he got bored.

He outgrew that sort of thing.

Right now, Kharg island is his lint roller: it is of no use to him, he just wants it because he wants it. No actual reason.

[unblock]

7. ROFL!!!

so perfect!

best analysis ever!

[leftstreet]

10. LOL

[questionseverything]

4. Yall keep forgetting, he is trying to do the worst possible thing

His entire plan is to weaken the United States to benefit Putin

[SheltieLover]

8. Absolutely!

[sboatcar]

5. They could probably land paratroopers there, but they couldn't resupply them

Iran effectively owns the Persian Gulf now, if they try to take that with ground troops, we'll just end up with a lot of dead americans.

[FSogol]

9. They have pipes! Trumpy can blow them up and claim victory.

TACO.

[dem4decades]

11. Idiot Trump thinks it will bring gas prices down.

Remember, he's a moron, that why it doesn't make sense to you.

[haele]

12. Ummm, it's a Trap?

Okay, it's a nice to capture due to its functional usefulness to Iran, but it's also in a killing zone covered with explosively flammable facilities.
I wouldn't put it past Iranian hardliners to decide they could make a huge, dramatic statement concerning their resolve and decimate US Marines in the process.
The Iranians understand Chess, they've developed and played versions of it for millennia.
I think landing on Kharg Island has far less value to it than, say, moving in from Pakistan and securing a hundred or so miles inland before taking it and settling out folks or infrastructure on it for the Saudis or Omanis.

[rampartd]

13. american exceptionalism

if we keep killing chiefs, eventually a new chief will sell us his island for $24 in mardi gras beads.

[AZJonnie]

14. The idea that there are Iranian mines floated out in the Gulf/Strait seems key to your analysis

But there is no proof there are any mines laid, so that is one thing you may be missing

[unblock]

18. This was widely reported

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-has-laid-about-dozen-mines-strait-hormuz-sources-say-2026-03-11/

It's certainly possible that Reuters and others were lied to, but it's the best version of the truth we have, for now, anyway....

[RockRaven]

15. It is a hostage to be taken. That's it. Idiots think if they take a hostage they have leverage.

Non-idiots recognize that taking a hostage is only leverage if the other side cares more about having the hostage than fighting you.

[LakeVermilion]

16. Search YouTube for: Black Man Spy

Everyday Malcolm Nance gives an hour presentation. I have to say, I know the answer to your questions.

[usonian]

17. I understand.

[OC375]

19. The goal was change, which is unavoidable now.

The rest is about being in position to capitalize on the changes.

It looks to me like Kharg is going away, for whatever reason, and that's a done deal. So for me, the question is what does a world without Kharg look like, how do things change, and who is likely to do what to capitalize on that. Iran has options, but so does the rest of the world. So, I don't think the intent is keeping Iran's oil from ever pumping again, it's just to shake up and try to grab some share.

I get a new world order vibe where the idea is to restructure trade and traditional roles in it, maybe kill some enemies along the way, and negotiate new terms with wall sitters. No one's jumping in to break up the fight, so I'd guess Trump feels pretty free to do whatever.

[calguy]

20. It could all be a bluff

Otherwise, they wouldn’t be publicizing moving troops into an area they were planning to attack. So far Iran is calling trump’s bluff by saying, “Come closer”.

Time will tell, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump backs down in this game of chicken.

[yellowcanine]

21. Trump is obsessed with islands. See Greenland and Cuba.

Kharg Island would make three. It’s a nice round number and he could build a speech around it for the MAGATs.

[Strelnikov_]

22. "what am i missing?" . . A lobotomy