How Trump will try to mess with the 2026 midterms
Gerrymandering
One way to have elections without them meaning all that much is by constructing legislative districts that advantage your party and are largely resilient to a surge by the opposition party. This is what Trump has done in coordination with Texas’ governor and legislature, and he’s seeking to do more in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and elsewhere.
Voter Intimidation
The US Department of Justice sent election monitors to a handful of spots around the country last month, including several counties in California and New Jersey. On its face this isn’t obviously concerning — the DOJ has sent election monitors to different jurisdictions for decades, often to ensure compliance with regulations and to respond to allegations of voter suppression or other irregularities. But this is particularly jarring coming from the Trump administration for two main reasons:
Working the Refs
It is plausible and consistent with electoral history that Democrats will take control of the House next year with a fairly substantial majority. The Senate, however, will likely be close. Democrats need to pick up four seats to gain the majority in that chamber, and it’s a tough map for them. They’ll need to hold onto places like Michigan and Georgia and pick up places like Maine and North Carolina. A year ago this looked like an impossible task; today, given last month’s elections and Trump’s continuing unpopularity, there is at least a narrow path for Democrats.
https://smotus.substack.com/p/how-trump-will-try-to-mess-with-the?publication_id=1327720&post_id=177845769&isFreemail=true&r=2fku&triedRedirect=true