Kirk Investigation Today

[Prairie Gates]

By the end of today...

65% chance we'll have some video of the shooter, though whether it will be useful video is another story.
30% chance we'll have a car.
10% chance we'll have a name (higher depending on reliability of any car information).

Something odd: They have not stated that they located a round (at the podium), much less a casing (on the roof or elsewhere). They have not even really confirmed the shooter's location, though the university seems to be pretty clear on it. No information about the possible type of weapon. At a certain point, they are going to need to ask the public for help, and that means releasing information. It's been pretty sparse.

[gab13by13]

1. The FBI is busy finding brown people to deport.

Money has been diverted away from actual terrorism.

Wonder if the name of the suspect will be Oswald?

[Prairie Gates]

2. I dunno...they tracked Mangione's movements very quickly, all things considered

I think they have people who are very good at tracking given the existing technologies.

[Lovie777]

6. They fired the qualified ones.....................

[IbogaProject]

11. NYC in Mid-Manhattan is blanketed w cameras

We will see.

[Prairie Gates]

13. Most universities are blanketed with cameras these days

[JI7]

15. Mangione case was before Kash Patel got there

[haele]

17. That's because there were still a large number of FBI still doing their jobs..

And there's still some question as to if there were others involved, and he's a young nihilist willing to take the fall for the LuLz and notoriety purposes.
Now, Patel is probably using "Agent AI" to do all the hard investigating.

[Prairie Gates]

18. You're not the only one to have that response

I don't really think it's true. There's no doubt that Patel is an absolute knob, but they didn't clear out the entire FBI. The NYTimes is already reporting that they have video of the guy arriving, they have video of him accessing the roof through a stairway, etc. None of this is particularly hard in a place where there are cameras everywhere, like a college campus.

[Buckeyeblue]

19. Mangione wasn't a professional hit man

He made a lot of mistakes. Whoever did this seemed to know exactly what they were doing. I don't think this murder is about politics. In the end I think will find out it's about money in some form or another.

[Prairie Gates]

20. Neither is this guy

[OC375]

32. I Agree

There is no settled fact that this guy is some ethereal assassin, who wouldn't make all the mistakes we've learned not to make by watch movies and reading spy novels. Anyone who's hunted deer more than a few times could have hit a human sitting in a chair at 100, 150, 200 yards from high ground.

[mountain grammy]

21. That was the pre Kash FBI..

[Prairie Gates]

22. Yes, I get it

You're the third person with the same reply. I don't think it has much merit, though I of course agree that Patel is an imbecile.

[mountain grammy]

24. I think it has merit

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/analysis/fbi-women-minorities-job-losses-kash-patel-rcna222988

One of the special agents forced out was in Salt Lake City

The special agent in charge in Salt Lake City, Mehtab Syed, is being forced out just six months after being appointed in February, for reasons that are not clear, the sources said. Associate Deputy Director J. William Rivers, who works for Bongino and Patel, told Syed she wasn’t a good fit for the office, which covers Utah, Idaho and Montana, the sources said. He offered her a lower-level job in the FBI’s Huntsville, Alabama, facility, but she has decided to retire, the sources said. She did not respond to a request for comment.

“She’s absolutely the best — truly a humble servant leader who treats co-workers like family,” said former FBI agent Christopher O’Leary, an MSNBC national security contributor who worked with Syed. “And she’s a legendary case agent who was involved in some of the most significant national security cases of the last two decades.”

Syed has served in a variety of consequential FBI jobs, including head of cyberterrorism and counterterrorism in the Los Angeles field office, a section chief in the counterintelligence section at FBI headquarters, and assistant legal attaché in Pakistan during the height of the U.S. war against Al Qaeda in that region. She also worked in counterterrorism in the New York field office and served in Amman, Jordan, during the U.S. fight against the Islamic State terrorist group, or ISIS.

[Prairie Gates]

27. Like I said, they have people who are good at this, regardless of Patel

Link to tweet

/photo/1

[mountain grammy]

31. Thanking for posting

I wouldn’t have seen it on X. Don’t follow that. Will look elsewhere.

Just found it on LBN.

[standingtall]

33. No gun no duffel bag

and he is walking up stairs instead of down stairs. This suggest if it is him this photo was taken before the shooting. Also he is wearing a long sleeve shirt. Cash Patel said they found a gun in the woods that had a finger and forearm print. Unless he roll up his before shooting I don't see how he could've left a forearm print. Could be him though, but they've already hinted to already catching the guy twice now and got it wrong. Edited After a closer look a the photo. He could've had the weapon under his shirt. There seems to be something bulging in the back at the right shoulder.

[ProfessorGAC]

34. What Is A Forearm Print?

Are there areas of the forearm that leave a unique signature, or they thinking DNA?

[standingtall]

36. Hadn't thought of that

I don't know if a forearm leaves a unique print, but they did say one was left on the gun.

[ProfessorGAC]

38. Since It Was Patel...

...I'm reserving judgment because he might be lying. It's what he's good at.

[Vogon_Glory]

3. Not to root for the murderer, but he or she was careful

Which hasn’t been the case with most recent assassins or would-be assassins here in the US. I suspect that finding and capturing the perp is going to prove far more difficult than catching John Hinkley or Squeaky Fromme.

[newdeal2]

9. If they are found, they will be found dead

That’s my hunch.

[Scrivener7]

4. Yep. This investigation will be, in the end, very squishy.

[GreenWave]

5. If he was in a debate, was the other person scheduled to be shot?

[Conjuay]

7. Epstein distraction number 120540.

NT

[dalton99a]

8. "There is a video of the individual but we are not releasing it yet"

per today's press conference

[Prairie Gates]

12. Edited post

Original title: If they're not releasing it it's because they're not sure it's "the individual"
No reason to hold it otherwise. Mangione was caught because of videos and images released to the public.

On Edit: They say they have video of him taking the stairs to the roof. That's gotta be pretty definitive, since he'd be carrying the rifle with him (presumably in some container). Now I have to think they have good video.

[Brainfodder]

10. Wondering if drone, remote, or from within moving source have been eliminated yet, since NOTHING seen yet at all.

No witness accounts of muzzle flash or someone aiming phone in the direction of where the shot likely came from?
No stairwell/roof/elevator/lobby cameras?
No street cameras?
In 2025?
Perfect storm?
It happens.

[yellowcanine]

14. Suspect will conveniently die in "shootout" with police.

[Prairie Gates]

16. I doubt it

[Prairie Gates]

23. Looks like the rifle was an "older model Mauser 30-06"

According to the NY Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09/11/us/charlie-kirk-shooting-news

[Vogon_Glory]

30. An older-model Mauser rifle? I wonder how much of a paper trail it had?

Probably not much. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was paid for with cash and sealed with a hand-shake either at a gun show or by somebody’s tail-gate.

[Prairie Gates]

25. Hit the 65% - we have at least an image of somebody suspected to be the shooter

Link to tweet

/photo/1

[Beringia]

29. This guy looks skinny as hell and why are his fists closed

[SheltieLover]

26. Manson eyes couldn't find his own ass with both hands, a flashlight & a mirror, so...

Especially when to do so would be inconvenient.

[Irish_Dem]

28. I agree, this guy is a good shot, but an amateur. The net is closing in on him now as we speak.

It is just a matter of time before there is an arrest.

Of course this depends upon a still functional FBI.

And no interference from the Trump Crime Syndicate.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

35. Agreed. He was aiming for the head.

Anyone who's spent a week at a range a half hour a day could make that shot that connected. If it were an assassin, it'd have been a headshot; Hundreds of thousands of people were watching and videotaping, and the target was stationary in a known relaxed position he adopts always after certain triggers; Namely, after certain phrases are uttered or when he puts the mic down. A nearsighted paraplegic could make that shot with ironsights with 20 minutes of research and a few hours at a gun range, and with a very commonly available bolt-action rifle that could be picked up from a garage sale off the books, cash.

It's an easy hit. It was easy for Kirk and it'd be easy for any other figure of prominence speaking at any given event.

[Irish_Dem]

37. I don't think the shot was as easy as you describe, but your point is taken.

Doesn't take a sniper genius to make the kill shot.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

39. I mean, a Mauser has an effective range around 1,000 yards, extending to a maximum 2000.

A 200, or 164, yard shot is essentially point and click; Aim for the head or neck, and if the bullet drops, it hits center mass. Any videogame or basic physics will teach you the same thing. I'm not saying... necessarily... that it was EASY, but I would contend that anyone who had a rough knowledge of how the gun operated would know the rough parameters. Bullet drop of a Mauser is about two to three inches at that range assuming .30 calibre, so assuming he was aiming at Charlie's temple, but didn't account for humidity, wind and elevation, it's entirely possible that it was a headshot that fell low. Just idle rambling really.

[Irish_Dem]

40. Makes more sense that it was a head shot which dropped.

Most likely not a a total money shot with one bullet.

Yes if this guy did not have a wind meter more likely it was a drop shot.

I like listening to the idle ramblings of people who know what they are talking about.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

41. "Who know what they're talking about". HAH! I'm no pro.

I'd never profess to be. I only know approximate information based on personal experience, but I do humbly thank you for granting me that honorific regardless.

[Irish_Dem]

42. You know more than I do about guns, bullets, sniper shots.

Personal experience can be a good addition to theory and dry statistics.