General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSP500 dropped like a rock. Opened up 0.40%, held 20 minutes, since has swung down a total of more than 1.0%
Now down about 0.60% from yesterday's close.
Big swing.
Was a September rate cut (now 100% of the experts are expecting one) already priced in and the economic data frightening investors more?
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C_U_L8R
(47,996 posts)like rebranding the Pentagon, building ballrooms, ruining patios and gilding the Oval Office in fake gold.
Maybe it's a good thing he isn't focused on the economy because he'd probably fuck it up even more.
Bristlecone
(10,855 posts)
Fiendish Thingy
(20,608 posts)We had much bigger drops back in the spring.
Bernardo de La Paz
(57,980 posts)Down 1.20% in about 90 minutes is a very big swing. Up 0.40% from yesterday's close then down 0.80% from yesterday's close is a 1.20% swing.
"swing", not "down from yesterday".
Fiendish Thingy
(20,608 posts)I’m not.
I expect the markets will churn for a couple of weeks until the next Fed meeting, then, if rates are cut as expected, surge past previous highs.
And then, as job losses mount, GDP contracts and inflation climbs, more volatility.
The silver lining will come when a recession is called, probably mid-2026, and that pushes Dems to double digit gains in the house in the midterms despite gerrymandering.
Bernardo de La Paz
(57,980 posts)I did not expect the market to go up and then turn tail down so much. It has recovered some since then, down only 0.50% (0.90% swing) as of this writing.
nitpicked
(1,343 posts)S&P 500 gives up gain as traders balance job market worries with rate cut hopes: Live updates
A fragile rally dissolved in the first hour of trading as rate cut hopes gave way to worries about a slowing economy following weaker-than-expected August jobs figures.
The S&P 500
dropped 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite
declined 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
fell 330 points, or 0.7%. That move lower took out the S&P 500′s gain for the week.
(snip)
The August jobs report saw the U.S. economy add 22,000 jobs on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That’s below the 75,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had expected. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations.
Traders are hoping the reading will lend support to the Fed’s case to go ahead with an expected rate cut at its September policy meeting. Fed funds futures trading suggests that benchmark interest rates will likely move a quarter percentage point lower when the central bank makes a decision on Sept.17, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,343 posts)nitpicked
(1,343 posts)(snip)
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change
since April. Over the month, a job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal
government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. (See table B-1.)
(snip)
Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) and is down by 97,000
since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are
counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
(snip)
CrispyQ
(40,181 posts)https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-august-2025
snip...
• The latest employment snapshot from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a bleak picture of the current state of the economy under President Donald Trump.
• Labor market deterioration: Just 22,0000 jobs were added in August, dramatically lower than economists’ expectations for 76,500 new roles.
• Negative job growth: For the first time in nearly four years, the economy lost jobs, with a decline of 13,000 positions in June.
• Rising unemployment: The jobless rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.
But hey, let's build a ballroom!
Happy Hoosier
(9,068 posts)The job market is weak, and inflation is creeping up. There is likely a modest rate coming, but with inflation threatening, the Fed will be reluctant to just open the money spigot.
Krasnov has truly fucked the economy.
Silent Type
(10,828 posts)lost, reported as a small gain of 22K.
Johnny2X2X
(23,280 posts)And he came out and said last night that the book cooking starts next year for the jobs report. Said the numbers will be whatever, he doesn't really care, and the real numbers will start next year.
I don't think most people understand what a huge deal the BLS numbers are. So many things in our economy and at all levels of government key off those numbers. If they stop being reliable, we're flying blind in business and government.
Bernardo de La Paz
(57,980 posts)The ADP numbers, though only 20% of the economy, are obtained from actual payroll data so ADP numbers are quite solid. The BLM surveys about 75% or there is a 75% response rate, and since they are surveys only, they are more volatile and subject to revisions, as we have seen. The BLM revisions have a habit of bringing them into line with the ADP numbers.
But yes, BLM statistics are very broad and are relied upon by business.
Johnny2X2X
(23,280 posts)Governments. Local governments use BLS statistics to tell them when to trigger safeguards. And it's a lot more than just jobs data, BLS handles GDP growth, inflation, and a whole host of other metrics thousands of organizations rely on to know what to do and when to do it.
People don't even know it, but your local government probably has parts of their budget that are based on some of this data. Things written into your city charter that say things like, 'If nationwide unemployment his 6%, then X amount of funds will be released to fund school lunch programs, and X amount of funds will be released to go to training." There are triggers baked into state governments based on these numbers. It's how they know what to do to serve the citizens best.
The BLS has been a source of truth that companies and governments can use for generations. Without them, it will be chaos. For business, it adds risk. For governments, it makes it harder for them to react.
All because Trump doesn't like that people are finding out he's destroying our economy.
Silent Type
(10,828 posts)Johnny2X2X
(23,280 posts)There are lifelong dedicated civil servants at the BLS that will sound the alarm.
The problem is though that the corporate media will make some noise for a month or two and then stop caring about it. They'll just go back to reporting the data like it's valid somehow, even when it's absolutely ridiculously made up. I can see FOX News now, "Unemployment hits 0.2% while Trump adds 1 Million jobs to the economy for the 15th month in a row. Wages are $100 an hour while inflation sits at 0.0%." The numbers will be useless and the private firms doing them just don't have the pedigree to lead the effort.
Sneederbunk
(16,607 posts)
Johonny
(24,484 posts)My Reits are up, my tech is down. But I think the markets are clearly moving in anticipation of a Sept cut, but also more cuts this year.
That's my take.
WarGamer
(17,778 posts)Considering it's a Friday... in September... recent all time highs...
Pretty much normal.
nitpicked
(1,343 posts)At least for now.
BUT you can't eat those sorts of stocks.
Greg_In_SF
(503 posts)in the second half of the day. Right back where I was at the beginning of the trading week. Anytime that happens in September is good news.