China's huge navy is expanding at breakneck speed - will it rule the waves?

[DavidDvorkin]

In the last two decades, China has ramped up investment in shipbuilding. And that has paid off: more than 60% of the world's orders this year have gone to Chinese shipyards. Put simply, China is building more ships than any other country because it can do it faster than anyone else.

"The scale is extraordinary… in many ways eye-watering," says Nick Childs, a maritime expert with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The Chinese shipbuilding capacity is something like 200 times overall that of the United States."

That commanding lead also applies to its navy. The Chinese Communist Party now has the world's largest, operating 234 warships compared to the US Navy's 219.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gmnpg31xlo

[Deuxcents]

1. We will most likely lose our standing in a lot of ways real soon. Signs like this are going up a lot lately

[nitpicked]

3. More from the BBC

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c5y310qngqpo

Watch: Putin, Modi and other world leaders in China for summit
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are among the twenty world leaders attending a regional security summit in China.

Xi Jinping, China's president, is also holding talks with Modi ahead of the annual gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the port city of Tianjin. It is Modi's first time in China in seven years.

The summit comes as US President Trump has imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods as punishment for Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil, and Putin faces threats of sanctions for his ongoing war on Ukraine.

[nitpicked]

4. And from AP

https://apnews.com/article/shanghai-cooperation-organization-china-us-asia-rivalry-37d58d94f70814c8e7a23721997abc2b

Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit challenges the US but its reach is murky

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and leaders of eight other nations are set to meet in northern China for the latest summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in a possible challenge to often incoherent approaches by the United States to trade and regional conflicts.

The 10-member group that will gather Sunday and Monday in the port city of Tianjin has grown in size and influence over the past 24 years, even while its goals and programs remain murky and name recognition low. Some call it the scariest grouping you have never heard of.

The full membership includes Russia, Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Originally seen as a foil to U.S. influence in Central Asia, the original organization picked up four new members with the addition of India and Pakistan in 2017, Iran in 2023 and Belarus in 2024.
(snip)

[Deuxcents]

7. I don't like this Us vs Them vibe these articles/news gives me

[DavidDvorkin]

9. But it really is Us vs. Them and has been for a long time

It's not the world we wish we lived it, but it is the world we live in.

[Deuxcents]

10. Yes, but this saber rattling is happening when we're so unprepared and our experienced military leaders

Have been let go and Hegseth, the unqualified, is at the helm. The world is a dangerous place sometimes, and always has been but I think this sounds like our adversaries are taking advantage of our discontent and poor leadership.

[DavidDvorkin]

12. They are indeed taking advantage

That's no surprise. Trump and his gang of blustering incompetents are rapidly destroying our position in the world. Up-and-coming rivals are always ready to pounce when #1 falters.

[sabbat hunter]

2. Many of those ships

in that count are still brown water ships. Not ones that can go deep in to the ocean, but stick close to shore. While we do need to make sure our fleet is up to date, we cannot, and should not, get in to a cold war era competition with china on a defense build up. We overspend on defense as it is.

[paleotn]

6. Bingo. Capabilities, not numbers. Plus, China has a host of other problems they can't simply build their way out of.

[paleotn]

5. Numbers of ships a navy has, even total tonnage, isn't necessarily a measure of power. Capabilities are.

The US has less than half the tonnage in warships we had in 1945. But that doesn't equate to a weakening of US Naval power by any means. US warships are vastly more capable and versatile than they've ever been.

The Chinese have more commissioned vessels, but less than 3/4 of the US Navy's total tonnage of ~4.7 million tons. That equates to lots of smaller ships, still a "brown water" focus, and not yet capable of power projection across oceans. A "blue water" navy.

They may get there relatively quickly in terms of tonnage, but experience is the biggest problem and not easily learned. We have over a century on them in that regard. Then there's the geography problem. They're hemmed in by US and allied bases and assets from Japan to the Philippines. Then there's the Strait of Malacca. Major choke point. Like Russia, geography is not their friend, making blue water power projection far more difficult than it is for us.

Short answer, they may have more ships but if they've not yet learned how to operate their navy effectively, they're just building more targets. At least from the view of an old submariner. Target rich environment.

Then again, the Brits probably said the same about us circa 1920. Back then, in addition to a possible conflict with Japan, our primary naval adversary was Great Britain. Things changed a lot between then and 1941. Where this current rivalry will go is anyone's guess.

[Hekate]

8. Obama tried to tell us. Hillary Clinton tried to tell us.

[paleotn]

13. Tell us what?

Of all the problems were having right now, that Obama and Clinton warned us about, this isn't among them.

[Morbius]

11. Historically, naval dominance isn't about military power.

It's about economic power. For the last half-millennium, the nation that ruled the waves controlled commerce. Having the mightiest navy allows a nation to send cargo-bearing ships wherever it likes, whenever it wants. I think China is looking to protect their income rather than their nation with this huge navy.

[DarthDem]

14. These articles . . . .

. . . appear like clockwork regularly, encouraged by "sources" who have a vested interest in maintaining US defense spending. The USN could destroy the entire PRC brown water navy in about a week if these fantasy scenarios came to pass. Which they won't.

[Ping Tung]

15. The endless pissng contests between wannabee "Great Leaders" lead ordinary people to their graves.

“It doesn't make a damned bit of difference who wins the war to someone who's dead.” Yossarian

[JI7]

16. China will be the only existing superpower in the world

in the near future with the way things are going.

[David__77]

17. I can understand countries wanting to secure their economic rights in the face of Trumps shakedown attempts.