3 takeaways from the most authoritative autopsy of the 2024 election yet

[TheProle]

New data that debunks the left’s favorite explanation for Harris’s defeat.

It’s been more than six months, but Democrats are still picking over the cold, dead body of the 2024 election. The latest autopsy comes courtesy of Catalist, a Democratic data firm with a widely coveted voter database.

By now, you may feel that you know more about how Democrats lost last year than you ever wished to know. Which would be understandable. But Catalist’s findings are especially authoritative, as the firm tracks the actual voting behavior of 256 million Americans across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In other words, they are not relying purely on surveys of how people said they would vote, but also hard data showing which party individual voters registered with, and which elections they did and did not show up for.

Previously, David Shor of Blue Rose Research released a 2024 analysis that drew partly on similar data sources. But Catalist boasts the longest-running voter database of any institution besides the Democratic and Republican Parties, as it has tracked the electorate’s behavior for over 15 years. Many, therefore, consider its characterizations of shifts in voting patterns to be uniquely trustworthy.

Their entire report is worth reading. But I’d like to spotlight three takeaways that have especially significant implications for Democratic strategy going forward.

https://web.archive.org/web/20250527121117/https://www.vox.com/politics/414370/2024-election-results-exit-polls-catalist

[TheProle]

1. The 3 takeaways:

1. Democrats did not lose because they failed to turn out the progressive base.
2. Young voters shifted right
3. Nonwhite voters got redder

[yardwork]

4. Reading the whole article, it looks like young men moved right.

I think this is the effect of the economy. Young and middle-aged men - who went strongly for Trump - are not feeling as well off as they want to be. They are struggling. This makes them susceptible to social media and podcasts complaining that men are being left behind.

If Democrats want to win we need to appeal to the economic realities that are affecting young people. Especially young men.

[Silent Type]

2. No idea what happened. However, we lost to most beatable A-hole in history. Somebody better figure out how to reverse

that by mid-terms.

[nilram]

7. It wasn't a question.

Maybe, ah, read the report – if you're interested

[Silent Type]

8. I did read the report. My comment stands, we lost to the most beatable candidate in history and better figure it out.

[Mosby]

3. Wapos takeaways from the catalist research.

1. The gender gap widened.
2. Educated White voters moved further to the right
3. Democrats held up better with rural voters than with urban voters.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/05/21/catalist-2024-election-exit-polls/

[moniss]

5. Without getting too deep into this I will say that

any such analysis that does not give huge emphasis to the voter suppression efforts of the GQP is hardly worth the time. There is a huge difference between the subject of how/why the voters voted regarding the election as it affected outcome and the massive millions of voters nationwide purged from registration, prevented from registering, and purposely misdirected about registration and voting. The GQP and their groups spend many millions of dollars on voter suppression election after election and they would not do so if it didn't work and pay off to them in the many billions of dollars.

This report speaks of fewer voters in 2024 than in 2020 and just calls them "drop off" voters that simply didn't show up. That is ignorant BS because it does not examine how much of that was voters who were purged and otherwise suppressed.

[Vinca]

6. There is the fact one candidate ran for 3 months and the other has been running for 9 years.

[FalloutShelter]

9. Sorry...

RAPIST TRAITOR FELON...everyone who stayed home or "shifted right" gets an F-

Failed the most basic morality test in American history.