A 'Blue Wave' is building. It won't look the same as the last one.

[RandySF]

With all that’s changed, how likely is it that the national environment will be as blue as it was in 2018? The short answer: There’s a strong possibility. Going back to the 2010 cycle, polling data has consistently shown that conditions tend to get worse, not better for the president’s party between their first months in office and the midterm election. Reviewing prior “generic ballot” surveys asking Americans whether they would vote for a Democratic or a Republican candidate on a generic congressional ballot, the average gain for the party out of power from the early months of a presidential term to Election Day is 7 points.

Democrats will also be dealing with a different electoral landscape than they did in 2018. Since 2016, the Republican coalition has changed drastically, with Trump trading high-propensity, college-educated suburban voters for lower-propensity, non-college-educated voters.

The president made notable gains with Black and Latino voters in the last two presidential cycles, but polling suggests that many of these newly Republican non-White voters did not turn out in a previous midterm election.

This change has made the strength of the Republican coalition more irregular, with potentially disastrous midterm consequences for the party if their base voters stay home. Making matters worse for Republicans, the current maps may make it even harder to translate this increased support in urban districts into midterm gains: Some of the biggest 2024 jumps in Trump’s support took place in deep-blue districts — such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Bronx seat — that are not likely to be competitive this cycle.




https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/05/27/blue-wave-democrats-republicans-split-ticket/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzQ4MzE4NDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzQ5NzAwNzk5LCJpYXQiOjE3NDgzMTg0MDAsImp0aSI6ImZlZTRjNzYyLTQzYmEtNDRmNi04YjRkLWExZjBmOTIxMWY3ZiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9vcGluaW9ucy8yMDI1LzA1LzI3L2JsdWUtd2F2ZS1kZW1vY3JhdHMtcmVwdWJsaWNhbnMtc3BsaXQtdGlja2V0LyJ9.Ul2CvDJHOeECBDqokgrnxTi8MCw1flfPnimiZtb5T64

[NoMoreRepugs]

1. Just an opinion, but I think it's IMPOSSIBLE to assess the level of racist hate and ignorance among American voters.

Now that many have seen what the SlobFather will do I would not be surprised if they clamor for more.

[fujiyamasan]

2. A lot of it may just be based on Trump himself

And his personality, which most of us find repulsive, has a weird charm to the various demographics he improved with. He brings out the crazies to vote for him, but his coattails are limited (gop senate candidates in swing states seemed to underperform Trump). It may be the same reason his preferred candidates lost so badly in ‘22.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. I don't think WaPo's presumptions will hold through 2026

Trump’s 2024 coalition will not hold through 2026, especially if we enter a tariff induced recession, and the Latino community continues to be terrorized by ICE.

The 2026 electoral landscape will be different, for sure, but perhaps in ways difficult to predict.

[moose65]

4. I never really thought about one aspect of this:

Trump did better with voters who aren't what we would call "regular voters." That could hurt the Republicans in the midterms. A lot of those folks would crawl over glass to vote for Trump, but they don't really give a shit about any other Republican candidates - in fact, it seems like they really can't stand anyone except Trump, if you can imagine.

I can't see them voting in droves for Thom Tillis here in NC, for example. Those folks sure didn't come out in 2018, and they really didn't turn in out in 2022, either. They just don't have any interest in elections where Trump isn't on the ballot.

May it be so!!

[Wounded Bear]

5. Your keyboard to god's monitor...

Would love to get a meaningful majority in the House this cycle.

[Torchlight]

6. I've had to unlearn standards and measures over the past eight years.

So many fundametnal concepts I had thought were inviolate or unmovable turned out to be on some pretty shaky ground (at best). My fist reaction is to look for a Blue Wave, but I'm learning to take things one day at a time in this environment. There's a lot of ground to cover between now and the midterms, and I just don;t know what fresh hell tomorrow, let alone next week is going to bring.

On the other hand, he's doing his uttermost best to stick his fingers in the eyes of as many people as he can without though to consequence. I don't know how much longer he can do that before something snaps back hard. The current numbers look doable, and I'm quietly confident, but I think I'll hunker down and wait another half year or so before I begin calling odds.