"Theoretically, Thune could call up the legislation immediately and pass it without a single Democratic vote."

[Miles Archer]

House Republicans passed their version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the legislative vehicle for President Donald Trump’s agenda, on a party-line vote early Thursday morning. The massive package is now Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s to handle. The Senate GOP faces a whole new set of hurdles to get the bill to Trump’s desk, and potential clashes in their caucus and with the House could still derail the bill’s passage.

Thanks to the budget reconciliation process, that set of hurdles does not include the filibuster. A simple majority vote is enough, and because Republicans control 53 Senate seats, Thune can lose three Republicans’ support and still pass the bill with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance. Theoretically, Thune could call up the legislation immediately and pass it without a single Democratic vote. However, Senate Republicans say there’s work to be done before they can sign off on the bill.

“We’ll make changes,” Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., told NBC News last week. “We’ve been talking with the House and there’s a lot of things we agree on. … But there’ll be changes in a number of areas.”

And much like in the House, some of the lawmakers’ demands run at cross-purposes to demands from others in their caucus. For example, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., has been adamant that the package not cut Medicaid benefits for his constituents. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and three other Republicans made clear to Thune that they don’t want to see clean energy tax credits ended, warning in a letter that doing so “would create uncertainty, jeopardizing capital allocation, long-term project planning, and job creation in the energy sector and across our broader economy.”

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-senate-big-beautiful-bill-rcna208520

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Sens. Tillis and Collins will likely insist on some changes

As they are the most vulnerable in the 2026 midterms.

I expect a few other republican senators will demand changes diluting some of the more brutal aspects of the bill, including Medicaid cuts.

[Miles Archer]

3. The SECOND Republicans pull the trigger on Medicaid cuts, they own them

I can already hear the spin..."These cuts were necessitated by the failed policies of the Biden years..."

And people who LOSE coverage will be DESTROYED, but the problem is that they will also be open to manipulation, so it would be a matter of urgency for Democrats to set the record straight.

I just don't have a lot of faith in the American people identifying their true source of pain these days, especially with Trump bleating like a goat 24/7. His "flood the zone with bullshit" and "repeat the lies until they become truth" tactics haven't diminished a bit, they've only gotten worse.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Medicaid cuts have Josh Hawley nervous

Missouri has one of the highest per capita rates of Medicaid users, and Hawley appears to realize he would get the blame if millions of residents in his state lost their healthcare.

[fujiyamasan]

5. Hawley's been trying to play faux populist

He’s probably going to be running for president in 2028.

[Miles Archer]

6. Yes...I've seen that a few times, including this morning

I don't know what kind of "Cloak of Invincibility" House Republicans think they're wearing.

We DO know Trump summoned the holdouts and berated them, and they caved.

Senate Republicans are signaling they won't fold as easily, but I'll believe that when I see it.

[mcar]

2. There are things in the big BS bill that do not

conform to the rules of reconciliation so, technically, cannot be passed with a simple majority.

That wouldn't stop the Senate Rs, though.